Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

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GEM Bank Credit Quality and Value Screens; the 4Q20 Story so Far

Credicorp (BAP US); Hanging on a Binary Election Outcome

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pedro Castillo retains a narrow lead over Keiko Fujimori and Castillo is almost definitely the next Peruvian President</li>
<li>The markets are rattled by the prospect of Castillo as President, and the market, along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a>, is likely to remain weak and volatile in the near term</li>
<li>It is important, in our view, to assess the potential “colour” of Castillo’s team; hard-left winger Vladimir Cerron is close to Castillo, yet his economic advisor and former World Bank economist Pedro Francke also has influence and seems much more moderate</li>
<li>We also believe that there are political checks and balances in place that could act as a brake to the implementation of any hard left agenda</li>
<li>Comparing the performance of Credicorp shares after left winger Ollanta Humala’s presidential election win ten years ago, gives us a certain degree of comfort; so do Credicorp’s valuations versus EM and LatAm bank peers</li>
<li>Risks to our view include a hard left agenda including interest rate caps on credit products hurting spreads and a worsening GDP growth outlook impacting loan growth and credit quality</li>
</ul>


Pedro Castillo retains a narrow lead over Keiko Fujimori and Castillo is almost definitely the next Peruvian President
The markets are rattled by the prospect of Castillo as President, and the market, along with Credicorp Ltd (BAP US), is likely to remain weak and volatile in the near term
It is important, in our view, to assess the potential “colour” of Castillo’s team; hard-left winger Vladimir Cerron is close to Castillo, yet his economic advisor and former World Bank economist Pedro Francke also has influence and seems much more moderate
We also believe that there are political checks and balances in place that could act as a brake to the implementation of any hard left agenda
Comparing the performance of Credicorp shares after left winger Ollanta Humala’s presidential election win ten years ago, gives us a certain degree of comfort; so do Credicorp’s valuations versus EM and LatAm bank peers
Risks to our view include a hard left agenda including interest rate caps on credit products hurting spreads and a worsening GDP growth outlook impacting loan growth and credit quality


Credicorp (BAP US): Prospects Hinge on the Composition of the Castillo Administration