Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

US Fiscal Outlook: Good for the Economy, but Profligacy Could Usher Return of Bond Vigilantes

Biden's Fiscal Bazooka Raises Risks of Significant Bond Portfolio Losses for Commercial Banks

Dramatically Rising US Bank Liquidity in 2021: Supportive for Treasuries and Risky Assets

US Economy Defies Doomsayers as Treasury's Record Cash Balance Prepares Ground for Further Stimulus

Equity Bulls Eye New Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen, Despite Rollback of Emergency Facilities

Fed Chair Powell Becomes the Most Powerful Person in Washington DC After Presidential Election

Ensuring US Economic Growth: Next US Administration Faces Short Honeymoon to Deliver Promises

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Periodically, the pro-growth agenda of former US Treasury secretaries has created an antagonistic relationship with the leadership at the Fed. Since 1990, however, relations between the Treasury and Fed have been largely amicable, while no major changes in congeniality are expected soon. Janet Yellen's extensive experience at the Fed has initially been viewed bullishly by Wall Street, along with her previous role working directly under a Democratic President. As Fed Chair, she had a dovish tilt towards policy formulation aimed primarily at healing the US labour market, while financial market conditions ranked lower in importance. Former Fed Chair Yellen was viewed as being a long-term deficit hawk during her tenure at the central bank, but she recognised the importance of fiscal policy in supporting  aggregate demand in the near-term. As a prospective Treasury Secretary, she recognises the importance that expansion of fiscal policy could have to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, but specific measures remain elusive at this juncture. A high level of US Treasury borrowing is anticipated in 2021 Q1, thereby implying that the Fed will need to ramp up asset purchases to prevent a reduction in bank reserves. Meanwhile, further liquidity injections are in the offing as the Treasury runs down its high cash balance at the Fed during 2021 H1, thereby implying meaningful support for the real economy, although the outlook beyond is uncertain.

Periodically, the pro-growth agenda of former US Treasury secretaries has created an antagonistic relationship with the leadership at the Fed. Since 1990, however, relations between the Treasury and Fed have been largely amicable, while no major changes in congeniality are expected soon.  Janet Yellen's extensive experience at the Fed has initially been viewed bullishly by Wall Street, along with her previous role working directly under a Democratic President. As Fed Chair, she had a dovish tilt towards policy formulation aimed primarily at healing the US labour market, while financial market conditions ranked lower in importance.  Former Fed Chair Yellen was viewed as being a long-term deficit hawk during her tenure at the central bank, but she recognised the importance of fiscal policy in supporting  aggregate demand in the near-term. As a prospective Treasury Secretary, she recognises the importance that expansion of fiscal policy could have to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, but specific measures remain elusive at this juncture.  A high level of US Treasury borrowing is anticipated in 2021 Q1, thereby implying that the Fed will need to ramp up asset purchases to prevent a reduction in bank reserves. Meanwhile, further liquidity injections are in the offing as the Treasury runs down its high cash balance at the Fed during 2021 H1, thereby implying meaningful support for the real economy, although the outlook beyond is uncertain.

Congenial Treasury-Fed Nexus Under Yellen Places Spotlight on Fiscal Policy Outlook