Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

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<ul>
<li>China housing crisis will likely mean that household debt/GDP flat lines in the coming years like Japan after 1990 and be a headwind for consumption.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the downturn in residential construction is already greater than that experienced by Japan after 1990 and in itself will be remain a structural headwind for China GDP.</li>
<li>Though China corporate debt/GDP ratio is higher than Japan in 1990, China LGFV debt is 50% of GDP and will be swapped for local and central government debt.</li>
</ul>


China housing crisis will likely mean that household debt/GDP flat lines in the coming years like Japan after 1990 and be a headwind for consumption.
Meanwhile, the downturn in residential construction is already greater than that experienced by Japan after 1990 and in itself will be remain a structural headwind for China GDP.
Though China corporate debt/GDP ratio is higher than Japan in 1990, China LGFV debt is 50% of GDP and will be swapped for local and central government debt.


Comparison Between China and Japan Debts