Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Moon Jae-In's Triumph Is Complete: US-DPRK Begin a Negotiation "Process"; the Korea Discount Is Dead

The End of The "Korea Discount" As DJ Kim's "Sunshine Policy" Is Poised to Win Big

Moon Jae-In's Gamble Pays off Handsomely: A Major Breakthrough in RoK-DPRK-US Ties Is Nigh

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

South Korea's President Moon Jae-in has effectively choreographed an end to the Korean War 65 years after it concluded in an armistice. Although the US (and possibly China) too need to sign a peace treaty to definitively end the 1950-53 war, the two Koreas signed up to a joint declaration affirming their determination to "transform the Korean Peninsula into a land of permanent peace". The "practical measures" to implement this included the creation of a no-fly zone and a demilitarized buffer on either side of the land and maritime border.   President Trump called the outcome of the Pyongyang summit "very exciting", and even his (more skeptical) Secretary of State Pompeo immediately called for talks with his DPRK counterpart Ri Yong Ho for"negotiations to transform US-DPRK relations" (classic Trump-like hyperbole). Kim and Moon agreed that the "North will permanently dismantle the Dongchang-ri missile engine test site...under the observation of experts from relevant countries" and, if "the United States takes corresponding measures", the North will permanently dismantle the "nuclear facilities in Yeongbyeon". This was well short of the unilateral surrender that US NSA John Bolton has advocated (unilateral CVID by the DPRK, the first step of which would be to declare all its nuclear assets). Moon agrees with a reciprocal process of disarmament (implying US concessions, either on troop levels or economic cooperation for every DPRK step forward) and Trump is likely to go along despite Bolton. The bonhomie of the 3-day summit will result in the full reopening (and likely expansion) of the Kaesong industrial zone, and the Mt. Kumgang tourism project (the two past symbols of economic cooperation from the Roh Moo-hyun era). Additionally, they pledged to cooperate in creating a joint special economic zone on the west coast, and a joint special tourism zone on the east coast. And as symbols of cooperation, the two Koreas will send a joint team to the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and jointly bid to host the 2032 Olympics -- implying an extraordinary vision of cooperative ties over the long haul.  The cooperative vision of the Pyongyang Declaration (<a href="http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/09/103_255848.html" target="_blank">http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/09/103_255848.html</a>) however depends crucially on the Trump administration agreeing to dilute UN sanctions against the DPRK. Moon and Kim have choreographed the next steps arising from any dilution of sanctions. It now appears very likely that President Trump will declare that the dismantling of Dongchang-ri (under international observation) is enough to trigger a dilution of sanctions -- which, in turn, could trigger moves towards dismantling Yeongbyeon. Moon's South Korea (and especially the Hyundai group) will be best-positioned to gain from the economic fillip of gaining access to North Korea's high-quality and cheap human resources, starting in 2019.

South Korea's President Moon Jae-in has effectively choreographed an end to the Korean War 65 years after it concluded in an armistice. Although the US (and possibly China) too need to sign a peace treaty to definitively end the 1950-53 war, the two Koreas signed up to a joint declaration affirming their determination to "transform the Korean Peninsula into a land of permanent peace". The "practical measures" to implement this included the creation of a no-fly zone and a demilitarized buffer on either side of the land and maritime border.   President Trump called the outcome of the Pyongyang summit "very exciting", and even his (more skeptical) Secretary of State Pompeo immediately called for talks with his DPRK counterpart Ri Yong Ho for"negotiations to transform US-DPRK relations" (classic Trump-like hyperbole). Kim and Moon agreed that the "North will permanently dismantle the Dongchang-ri missile engine test site...under the observation of experts from relevant countries" and, if "the United States takes corresponding measures", the North will permanently dismantle the "nuclear facilities in Yeongbyeon". This was well short of the unilateral surrender that US NSA John Bolton has advocated (unilateral CVID by the DPRK, the first step of which would be to declare all its nuclear assets). Moon agrees with a reciprocal process of disarmament (implying US concessions, either on troop levels or economic cooperation for every DPRK step forward) and Trump is likely to go along despite Bolton. The bonhomie of the 3-day summit will result in the full reopening (and likely expansion) of the Kaesong industrial zone, and the Mt. Kumgang tourism project (the two past symbols of economic cooperation from the Roh Moo-hyun era). Additionally, they pledged to cooperate in creating a joint special economic zone on the west coast, and a joint special tourism zone on the east coast. And as symbols of cooperation, the two Koreas will send a joint team to the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo and jointly bid to host the 2032 Olympics -- implying an extraordinary vision of cooperative ties over the long haul.  The cooperative vision of the Pyongyang Declaration (http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/09/103_255848.html) however depends crucially on the Trump administration agreeing to dilute UN sanctions against the DPRK. Moon and Kim have choreographed the next steps arising from any dilution of sanctions. It now appears very likely that President Trump will declare that the dismantling of Dongchang-ri (under international observation) is enough to trigger a dilution of sanctions -- which, in turn, could trigger moves towards dismantling Yeongbyeon. Moon's South Korea (and especially the Hyundai group) will be best-positioned to gain from the economic fillip of gaining access to North Korea's high-quality and cheap human resources, starting in 2019. 

Choreographing Peace: Moon Takes Another Big Step Forward with Kim Jong-Un