Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

G20/Property Woes/Steel & Iron Slump/Equity Market/Taiwan Election Shocker

China: No Reprieve to an Exceptionally Painful Down-Cycle

China: Stimulus Not Gaining Enough Traction, More Aggressive Policy Likely

China: Full Brunt of Trade War Will Eventually Hit

China: Accelerating Policy Responses Can Revive Growth but at What Price?

China: Easing Measures Could Push CNY Below 7-Mark

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p>In more than 26 years of research trips to China, we have never encountered the degree of unease that has settled among the wide and diverse array of people we met.</p><ul>
<li>The Chinese economy is probably weakening faster than what official data portrays and the main cause of this deceleration is mostly domestic, related to internal imbalances and the private sector’s growing jitters. The trade war adds to this unease.</li>
<li>Salient risks such as overleverage and shadow banking are mostly contained by policymakers but the marked slowdown in growth is likely to trigger other, deeper imbalances which policy may not fully recognise.</li>
<li>While aggressive policy measures can prop up growth at above 6% in 2019, the efficacy of the available policy tools is increasingly diminished and their costs have risen.</li>
<li>Thus, the main risk is not slower GDP growth per se: what we need to worry about is the fall-out from policy measures and the domestic fault lines.</li>
</ul>

In more than 26 years of research trips to China, we have never encountered the degree of unease that has settled among the wide and diverse array of people we met.
The Chinese economy is probably weakening faster than what official data portrays and the main cause of this deceleration is mostly domestic, related to internal imbalances and the private sector’s growing jitters. The trade war adds to this unease.
Salient risks such as overleverage and shadow banking are mostly contained by policymakers but the marked slowdown in growth is likely to trigger other, deeper imbalances which policy may not fully recognise.
While aggressive policy measures can prop up growth at above 6% in 2019, the efficacy of the available policy tools is increasingly diminished and their costs have risen.
Thus, the main risk is not slower GDP growth per se: what we need to worry about is the fall-out from policy measures and the domestic fault lines.


China Trip Observations: Palpable Sense of Gloom as Uncertainties Loom Large