Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Yuan & Stimulus/Jobs/Share Buybacks/China’s Model/Taiwan & Tech War

China: Full Brunt of Trade War Will Eventually Hit

China Trip Observations: Palpable Sense of Gloom as Uncertainties Loom Large

China: Easing Measures Could Push CNY Below 7-Mark

China: Warning Bells Sound over Thinning Current Account Buffer – Will CNY Break Above 7 to the USD?

China: Focus Is on Spurring Growth, Stability Could Be Sacrificed

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The crux to maintaining stability amid uncertainty is for the government to project its ability to maintain control over the economy. Hence, policy has shifted definitively from spurring reforms and reducing financial risks to burnishing growth.</li></ul><ul>
<li>Our analysis shows that the economy is more vulnerable than in 2008. First, the investment tail-off and weakness in consumer spending have reduced growth momentum. Second, the deterioration in China’s current account balance raises risks for the Yuan, which is likely to soon break through CNY7 to the US Dollar.</li>
<li>Consequently, policy response which is key to keeping the Chinese economy on track has become more fraught with complexity. Policy-led stimulus could exacerbate financial imbalances and the deterioration in the current account, which could then reverberate back onto China’s economy.</li>
<li>The implications for the rest of Asia are tumbling currencies as the expectations of further Yuan depreciation accumulates and a possible clampdown on outbound tourism by China.</li>
</ul>

The crux to maintaining stability amid uncertainty is for the government to project its ability to maintain control over the economy. Hence, policy has shifted definitively from spurring reforms and reducing financial risks to burnishing growth.
Our analysis shows that the economy is more vulnerable than in 2008. First, the investment tail-off and weakness in consumer spending have reduced growth momentum. Second, the deterioration in China’s current account balance raises risks for the Yuan, which is likely to soon break through CNY7 to the US Dollar.
Consequently, policy response which is key to keeping the Chinese economy on track has become more fraught with complexity. Policy-led stimulus could exacerbate financial imbalances and the deterioration in the current account, which could then reverberate back onto China’s economy.
The implications for the rest of Asia are tumbling currencies as the expectations of further Yuan depreciation accumulates and a possible clampdown on outbound tourism by China.


China: Accelerating Policy Responses Can Revive Growth but at What Price?