HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) - Negative Growth in 24H1 Seems Inevitable

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) - Performance Would Pick up in 24H2

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) - 24H1 Looks Challenging, but Things Get Better in 24H2

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Equity Bottom-Up

China Shineway Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shineway’s 24Q1-Q3 performance is disappointing. So, we adjusted our forecast- 2024 Revenue could be about RMB3.7-4 billion, down 11-18% YoY. Net profit could reach about RMB1.05-1.1 billion, up 8-13% YoY.  </li>
<li>VBP is the biggest headwinds - Injection products/TCM formula granules/OTC medications all face VBP, which brings uncertainties to future performance. It’s uncertain whether the 2025 performance will rebound as expected.</li>
<li>Shineway seems to have lost growth momentum after COVID-19.Considering large cash balance, it doesn't make much sense to hold the Company long term if it doesn't significantly raise its dividend.</li>
</ul>


Shineway’s 24Q1-Q3 performance is disappointing. So, we adjusted our forecast- 2024 Revenue could be about RMB3.7-4 billion, down 11-18% YoY. Net profit could reach about RMB1.05-1.1 billion, up 8-13% YoY.  
VBP is the biggest headwinds - Injection products/TCM formula granules/OTC medications all face VBP, which brings uncertainties to future performance. It’s uncertain whether the 2025 performance will rebound as expected.
Shineway seems to have lost growth momentum after COVID-19.Considering large cash balance, it doesn't make much sense to hold the Company long term if it doesn't significantly raise its dividend.


China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK) - The Outlook Is Deteriorating