Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Diplomacy/ Procreation/ Yuan/ US-China/ Shein

CPTPP Gains Traction: Multilateralism Is (Still) Well and Alive

China: Rising Capital Flight Suggests Limits to Further Monetary Stimulus This Year

Biden's "Socialist" Remake of the US: How Much Will Be Too Much for the Blue Dogs?

China Has Had a Great 2020, but Over-Capacity Will Cause Headaches in 2021

Biden Stimulus+ Will Be Inflationary; Policy Stability Is Enabling a More Leftward Tilt

Biden's Huge Stimulus Is Obliging the Fed to Edge Away from Unlimited QE

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<p>China has been the biggest beneficiary of the global glut of central bank liquidity created since the Global Financial Crisis of Sept 2008 -- which was multiplied further in 2020 with renewed central bank aggression amid the Covid pandemic. In 2007, China already had massive industrial over-capacity. But China rode the tide of global liquidity since 4Q 2008, with China's M2 money supply expanding from US$6.56 trillion in August 2008 to US$34.96 trillion in April 2021 (more than a 5-fold increase in 13 years) -- while US M2 expanded from US$7.75 trillion to US$20.11 trillion over the same period (a 2.5-fold increase).  </p><p>Now, with US core CPI inflation at 3% and the core PCE deflator up 3.1% YoY in April 2021, it will be impossible for the Fed to keep adding US$120 billion of assets to its balance sheet monthly. Global liquidity conditions are bound to tighten. China will find it difficult to export its overcapacity, as the world has become more wary of allowing China to dump (i.e., export production below cost), especially as production ramps up in the rest of the world amid the full reopening from the pandemic. We recommend staying cautious on the China market, avoiding its tech titans particularly, as they run into political challenges from Xi Jinping. </p>

China has been the biggest beneficiary of the global glut of central bank liquidity created since the Global Financial Crisis of Sept 2008 -- which was multiplied further in 2020 with renewed central bank aggression amid the Covid pandemic. In 2007, China already had massive industrial over-capacity. But China rode the tide of global liquidity since 4Q 2008, with China's M2 money supply expanding from US$6.56 trillion in August 2008 to US$34.96 trillion in April 2021 (more than a 5-fold increase in 13 years) -- while US M2 expanded from US$7.75 trillion to US$20.11 trillion over the same period (a 2.5-fold increase).  Now, with US core CPI inflation at 3% and the core PCE deflator up 3.1% YoY in April 2021, it will be impossible for the Fed to keep adding US$120 billion of assets to its balance sheet monthly. Global liquidity conditions are bound to tighten. China will find it difficult to export its overcapacity, as the world has become more wary of allowing China to dump (i.e., export production below cost), especially as production ramps up in the rest of the world amid the full reopening from the pandemic. We recommend staying cautious on the China market, avoiding its tech titans particularly, as they run into political challenges from Xi Jinping. 

China Has Been the Global Winner from the Liquidity Glut of 2008-21; Now Comes Pain