Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

China's Above-Forecast Jun Export Is No Way to Cheer

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Overall, the July data is consistent with our forecast of a weaker H2 and we still look for 4.7% GDP growth for 2024.</li>
<li>The data is also consistent with our forecast of 4.0% in 2025 GDP growth. Consumption behavior could stall further and cause more of a drag than we anticipate.</li>
<li>We now see a 30% probability that 2025 growth could be below 4%.</li>
</ul>


Overall, the July data is consistent with our forecast of a weaker H2 and we still look for 4.7% GDP growth for 2024.
The data is also consistent with our forecast of 4.0% in 2025 GDP growth. Consumption behavior could stall further and cause more of a drag than we anticipate.
We now see a 30% probability that 2025 growth could be below 4%.


China Data: Weak Performance in July and into 2025