Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

China: Looking Beyond the Immediate Challenges...

China: Three Takeaways from Recent Data Releases

China: The Worst Is over … Maybe, but Downside Pressures Remain

China: Downward Pressures Evident; Policy Response Falling Short

China: Taking the Pulse of the Economy Heading into 2Q22

China: A Moment of Danger – and a Turning Point for Policy?

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The consensus view is now coalescing with our bearish call on 8 April that risk aversion among local governments would bring about a protracted exit from zero-COVID, thereby impacting growth.</li>
<li>There are now more indications that the policy response would prove ineffectual in spurring a recovery in 2H22 - which underpins our bear case scenario of just 2% growth.</li>
<li>We expect infrastructure construction to be buffeted by rolling lockdowns, while declining confidence (and wherewithal to spend) among households mean that tax cuts to spur consumption could fall flat.</li>
</ul>


The consensus view is now coalescing with our bearish call on 8 April that risk aversion among local governments would bring about a protracted exit from zero-COVID, thereby impacting growth.
There are now more indications that the policy response would prove ineffectual in spurring a recovery in 2H22 - which underpins our bear case scenario of just 2% growth.
We expect infrastructure construction to be buffeted by rolling lockdowns, while declining confidence (and wherewithal to spend) among households mean that tax cuts to spur consumption could fall flat.


China: Bear Case Materialising?