Softer Year-End U.S. Payroll Growth Does Not Change The Outlook

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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<p>US 10-year Treasury yields have spurted higher, moving into the 2.6-2.7% range that we have long tipped as likely given both the US economy's current extraordinary degree of cyclical momentum and mounting evidence of a recrudescence of core inflationary pressure (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-18-for-18-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16410">Global: 18 For ‘18 - Part 1</a>). As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder</a> has highlighted, yields now flirting with key technical levels. </p>
<p>The temptation is to extrapolate the recent trend and assume that the 'melt up' in yields continues, even gathers…</p>
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US 10-year Treasury yields have spurted higher, moving into the 2.6-2.7% range that we have long tipped as likely given both the US economy's current extraordinary degree of cyclical momentum and mounting evidence of a recrudescence of core inflationary pressure (see Global: 18 For ‘18 - Part 1). As Thomas Schroeder has highlighted, yields now flirting with key technical levels. 
The temptation is to extrapolate the recent trend and assume that the 'melt up' in yields continues, even gathers…


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