Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Caltex's Proposed Retail IPO Triggers Revised Bid From Couche-Tard

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Immediately after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caltex-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:345:1" rel="noopener">Caltex Australia (CTX AU)</a> <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191125/pdf/44bwq8x7xg0cdh.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> plans for a property IPO involving 250 freehold sites of 500 core sites previously flagged, Caltex <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191126/pdf/44bylc73fnjmbn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 26 November the receipt of a US$5.8bn non-binding, indicative, conditional proposal from Quebec-based convenience-store operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alimentation-couche-tard-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25103:1" rel="noopener">Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/A CN)</a> at A$34.50/share, in cash, by way of a Scheme, less any dividends declared by Caltex. This proposal followed an earlier indicative bid from Couche-Tard at A$32, which was rejected on the basis the price was inadequate.
The Offer provided for the payment of a fully franked special dividend, which could add up to ~A$3.30/share to the Offer.
After Caltex again rejected this Offer, ATD returned with a <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200213/pdf/44f1wrtbhkf1w4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$35.25 bid</a> (less any dividend declared), a 27% premium to the undisturbed price and a 2% bump to its previous Offer. Caltex <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200217/pdf/44f47lbmjwmsg3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it was in its shareholder's interest to engage further with ATD.
Often "best and final" Offers flush out competitive bidders. And so it did with Britain's EG Group <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200219/pdf/44f735693ts55k.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> a somewhat overwrought cash/scrip Offer by way of a Scheme, such that Caltex shareholders receive $15.62/share in cash (tied to the convenience retail business) and a security in Ampol, a newly listed company on the ASX, holding (&amp; rebranding) the existing fuel &amp; infrastructure biz.
EG indicated it was prepared to acquire up to 10% in Ampol.
The issue is that EG does not offer an overall bid price for the break-up of Caltex, leaving the scrip portion open to interpretation. That plays into ATD's hand. 
As always, more below the fold.

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Immediately after Caltex Australia (CTX AU) announced plans for a property IPO involving 250 freehold sites of 500 core sites previously flagged, Caltex announced on the 26 November the receipt of a US$5.8bn non-binding, indicative, conditional proposal from Quebec-based convenience-store operator Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD/A CN) at A$34.50/share, in cash, by way of a Scheme, less any dividends declared by Caltex. This proposal followed an earlier indicative bid from Couche-Tard at A$32, which was rejected on the basis the price was inadequate.
The Offer provided for the payment of a fully franked special dividend, which could add up to ~A$3.30/share to the Offer.
After Caltex again rejected this Offer, ATD returned with a A$35.25 bid (less any dividend declared), a 27% premium to the undisturbed price and a 2% bump to its previous Offer. Caltex said it was in its shareholder's interest to engage further with ATD.
Often "best and final" Offers flush out competitive bidders. And so it did with Britain's EG Group announcing a somewhat overwrought cash/scrip Offer by way of a Scheme, such that Caltex shareholders receive $15.62/share in cash (tied to the convenience retail business) and a security in Ampol, a newly listed company on the ASX, holding (&amp; rebranding) the existing fuel &amp; infrastructure biz.
EG indicated it was prepared to acquire up to 10% in Ampol.
The issue is that EG does not offer an overall bid price for the break-up of Caltex, leaving the scrip portion open to interpretation. That plays into ATD's hand. 
As always, more below the fold.








Ampol

Caltex: EG Inconveniences ATD's Offer