HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Weaker 2Q20 QoQ Showed the Tough Environment

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Adjustment in Fare Price Not of Much Help

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Good FY19 Result Means Nothing for FY20

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway IPO: Initial Thoughts on the A-Share Listing

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway IPO: A-Share IPO Price Fixed at Rmb4.88

China Rail: Implications of the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway IPO

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra (601816 CH)

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-shanghai-high-spe-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28433:1" rel="noopener">Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH)</a> (BSHR) reported an 86.3% YoY drop in profit in 1Q20, dragged down by the COVID-19 outbreak and weak performance of its acquisition of Beijing-Fuzhou Railway Anhui Co., Ltd (BFRAC). We estimate that loss at BFRAC has more than doubled in 1Q20 and this will continue to put pressure on BSHR.</p><p>Railway passenger traffic recovery is still bumpy, with national traffic still down by 62.3% YoY in 1-4 May during the Labour Day holidays. We see the consensus forecast of a 15% profit drop (and 26.5% EPS decline due to dilution) in FY20 too optimistic, and is difficult to justify its 31.7x PER for FY20F and 24.6x for FY21F.</p>

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH) (BSHR) reported an 86.3% YoY drop in profit in 1Q20, dragged down by the COVID-19 outbreak and weak performance of its acquisition of Beijing-Fuzhou Railway Anhui Co., Ltd (BFRAC). We estimate that loss at BFRAC has more than doubled in 1Q20 and this will continue to put pressure on BSHR.Railway passenger traffic recovery is still bumpy, with national traffic still down by 62.3% YoY in 1-4 May during the Labour Day holidays. We see the consensus forecast of a 15% profit drop (and 26.5% EPS decline due to dilution) in FY20 too optimistic, and is difficult to justify its 31.7x PER for FY20F and 24.6x for FY21F.

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Poor 1Q20, Difficult to Justify High Multiples