HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Poor 1Q20, Difficult to Justify High Multiples

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Weaker 2Q20 QoQ Showed the Tough Environment

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Adjustment in Fare Price Not of Much Help

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway IPO: Initial Thoughts on the A-Share Listing

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway IPO: A-Share IPO Price Fixed at Rmb4.88

China Rail: Implications of the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway IPO

Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra / Equity Bottom-Up

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra (601816 CH)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-shanghai-high-spe-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28433:1" rel="noopener">Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH)</a> (BSHR) announced a profit of Rmb11.9bn (+16.5% YoY) in FY19, which is at the high-end of its IPO indicated range. This is primarily driven by lower cost of services and finance cost; but its 5.7% increase in revenue does not look impressive.We see FY20 to be challenging. Not only that the COVID-19 outbreak will drag on its profitability, the inability to raise passenger yield, the slightly higher price tag of acquisition of Beijing-Fuzhou Railway Anhui Co., Ltd (BFRAC) and the likely bigger loss at BFRAC are added burdens. Consensus forecasts showed that EPS will NOT return to the FY19 level even in FY22, making the stock difficult to justify a 30.5x PER for FY20.

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH) (BSHR) announced a profit of Rmb11.9bn (+16.5% YoY) in FY19, which is at the high-end of its IPO indicated range. This is primarily driven by lower cost of services and finance cost; but its 5.7% increase in revenue does not look impressive.We see FY20 to be challenging. Not only that the COVID-19 outbreak will drag on its profitability, the inability to raise passenger yield, the slightly higher price tag of acquisition of Beijing-Fuzhou Railway Anhui Co., Ltd (BFRAC) and the likely bigger loss at BFRAC are added burdens. Consensus forecasts showed that EPS will NOT return to the FY19 level even in FY22, making the stock difficult to justify a 30.5x PER for FY20.   

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (601816 CH): Good FY19 Result Means Nothing for FY20