FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

CAD Facing Risks from a Weaker Housing Market and NAFTA

FOMC Minutes – Low Inflation Vs. Financial Stability

Trump's 'reality Show' Hurts the Dollar, Euro and UK Look Perky

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>In our view, the probability of a Bank of Canada hike on Wednesday is essentially zero, creating some risk of a further kneejerk rise in USD/CAD.  The market is pricing in a modest 19% chance of a hike.  The tone of the Bank’s statement, press conference and Monetary Policy Review will probably reflect the message delivered by Governor Poloz’s speech on 27-Sep; that the Bank is now more data dependent, and not a slave to its models.  The tone of recent data is that the economy has moderated from its rapid growth in the first half of the year.  There is enough reason to wait for a few months to see how the economy responds to the two quick-fire hikes in Q3.  However, the Bank is still likely to view the economy in-line with the forecasts presented in its July MPR and retain a clear tightening bias.  The labour market in particular retained its strength in September, and wage growth has lifted from low levels.  The recent retreat in the CAD exchange rate is consistent with the narrowing in its yield advantage in the last month.  Further gains in USD/CAD are possible in the context of a stronger USD and NAFTA uncertainty.</em></p>

In our view, the probability of a Bank of Canada hike on Wednesday is essentially zero, creating some risk of a further kneejerk rise in USD/CAD.  The market is pricing in a modest 19% chance of a hike.  The tone of the Bank’s statement, press conference and Monetary Policy Review will probably reflect the message delivered by Governor Poloz’s speech on 27-Sep; that the Bank is now more data dependent, and not a slave to its models.  The tone of recent data is that the economy has moderated from its rapid growth in the first half of the year.  There is enough reason to wait for a few months to see how the economy responds to the two quick-fire hikes in Q3.  However, the Bank is still likely to view the economy in-line with the forecasts presented in its July MPR and retain a clear tightening bias.  The labour market in particular retained its strength in September, and wage growth has lifted from low levels.  The recent retreat in the CAD exchange rate is consistent with the narrowing in its yield advantage in the last month.  Further gains in USD/CAD are possible in the context of a stronger USD and NAFTA uncertainty.

CAD

Bank of Canada on Hold This Time