FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

AUD Clouds Clearing, GBP Storm Clouds Brewing

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The BoC rate decision tomorrow is a line ball call.  The output gap model suggests getting a hurry on because the economy is moving into excess demand and rates are far below neutral.  Recent consumer, housing, and labor market data also support getting on with hikes.  Some more recent, albeit modest, ebbing in business activity indicators suggest the Bank can take a more standard path of hiking on a quarterly schedule and waiting until the 25 October MPR date.  Inflation is also not an immediate concern.  The recent pace of CAD exchange rate gains might give the Bank some pause before hiking again.  The level of the CAD exchange rate is not particularly high, but the external balance in Canada remains historically weak.  The USD continues to struggle due to heightened economic and political uncertainty. Gold has rallied, and US yields are lower reflecting increased haven demand.  Stronger global manufacturing is underpinning commodities and commodity currencies. EUR has stalled ahead of ECB meeting; it may correct a bit more if the ECB forecasts that the higher EUR this year dampens its inflation outlook.</em></p>

The BoC rate decision tomorrow is a line ball call.  The output gap model suggests getting a hurry on because the economy is moving into excess demand and rates are far below neutral.  Recent consumer, housing, and labor market data also support getting on with hikes.  Some more recent, albeit modest, ebbing in business activity indicators suggest the Bank can take a more standard path of hiking on a quarterly schedule and waiting until the 25 October MPR date.  Inflation is also not an immediate concern.  The recent pace of CAD exchange rate gains might give the Bank some pause before hiking again.  The level of the CAD exchange rate is not particularly high, but the external balance in Canada remains historically weak.  The USD continues to struggle due to heightened economic and political uncertainty. Gold has rallied, and US yields are lower reflecting increased haven demand.  Stronger global manufacturing is underpinning commodities and commodity currencies. EUR has stalled ahead of ECB meeting; it may correct a bit more if the ECB forecasts that the higher EUR this year dampens its inflation outlook.

CAD

Bank of Canada Could Surprise Again