Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japan Weekly | Advantest, Ibiden, Recruit, Infroneer, Glosel

Outsourcing (2427) MBO Start Delayed A Month - Large Float So Eminently Bumpable But...

Outsourcing (2427) - Earnings Delay Causes Consternation

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.</li>
<li>It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. </li>
<li>This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 8 December, Bain announced an MBO with Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) Chair Haruhiko Doi to take the company private at a 51% premium. Looks good at first glance.
It is, however, an offer at ~6.6x Management Forecast derived Dec 2024 EBITDA. This for a top player in a fast-growing market where Street/mgmt both see up-and-to-the-right results from here. 
This is a delayed start (late-Jan) for regulatory approvals. It is too cheap. It is blockable. But Doi-san is young at 64yrs old and he could come back years later.


Bain Deal for Outsourcing (2427): Cheeky, Opportunistic, Too Low