Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>There are many reasons why emerging Asian central banks might be expected to tighten policy – fear of inflation, worries over financial imbalances and the need to protect against taper tantrums once the Federal Reserve starts to tighten policy.</li>
<li>However, we do not see the monetary authorities rushing to raise rates in Southeast Asia, given how the surge in COVID infections has pummelled growth prospects</li>
<li>In India, the RBI is likely to first tighten by unwinding its liquidity measures in 4Q21 before raising rates in 1Q22.</li>
<li>Bank Indonesia is likely to defer rate hikes to as late as possible, probably 3Q22.</li>
<li>Similarly, Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to raise rates only in the second half of 2022.</li>
<li>Singapore is likely to tighten policy in April 2022.</li>
<li>We see the Bank of Thailand maintaining rates at current levels through 2023.</li>
<li>The Philippine central bank will probably be the last to raise rates, likely in 4Q22.</li>
</ul>


There are many reasons why emerging Asian central banks might be expected to tighten policy – fear of inflation, worries over financial imbalances and the need to protect against taper tantrums once the Federal Reserve starts to tighten policy.
However, we do not see the monetary authorities rushing to raise rates in Southeast Asia, given how the surge in COVID infections has pummelled growth prospects
In India, the RBI is likely to first tighten by unwinding its liquidity measures in 4Q21 before raising rates in 1Q22.
Bank Indonesia is likely to defer rate hikes to as late as possible, probably 3Q22.
Similarly, Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to raise rates only in the second half of 2022.
Singapore is likely to tighten policy in April 2022.
We see the Bank of Thailand maintaining rates at current levels through 2023.
The Philippine central bank will probably be the last to raise rates, likely in 4Q22.


Asian Monetary Policy: Liftoff in 2022