Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Covid-19/ Crypto/ Goldman/ Energy/ Unmanned

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>While headline inflation could remain elevated in the near term on higher raw material prices and supply bottlenecks, we still see a large amount of regional spare capacity keeping core inflation relatively benign.</li>
<li>There are relatively higher upside risks to inflation in China where the output gap has closed and the extent of pass-through of cost increases is greatest, even as the extent of input cost inflation remains comparatively modest.</li>
<li>Rising input costs are most salient in Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam but weak pass-through associated with firms’ pricing power limits the risk of a surge in inflation there.</li>
<li>Higher food and energy prices later in 2021 could raise headline inflation in India and Thailand, both of which feature relatively high food and energy weights in their CPI baskets.</li>
</ul>


While headline inflation could remain elevated in the near term on higher raw material prices and supply bottlenecks, we still see a large amount of regional spare capacity keeping core inflation relatively benign.
There are relatively higher upside risks to inflation in China where the output gap has closed and the extent of pass-through of cost increases is greatest, even as the extent of input cost inflation remains comparatively modest.
Rising input costs are most salient in Taiwan, Malaysia and Vietnam but weak pass-through associated with firms’ pricing power limits the risk of a surge in inflation there.
Higher food and energy prices later in 2021 could raise headline inflation in India and Thailand, both of which feature relatively high food and energy weights in their CPI baskets.


Asia: Headline Inflation May Be Up But Core Inflation Remains Benign