FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

It has been a complex period in currency markets since the Brexit vote.  The USD has been unusually weak considering the lift in its yield advantage.  JPY has been volatile and uncertainty over its direction remains high.  It has stalled recently as the market struggles to guess the BoJ’s next step.  Funds have flowed to emerging markets with renewed vigor in what began as a rebalancing away from the UK and Europe, supported by falling global bond yields, forcing markets to chase higher yielding assets.  The USD appears to have fallen as the default funding currency.  At the end of last week, surprisingly weak Chinese data interrupted an otherwise improving outlook for emerging market assets.  The GBP resumed its fall and may be again holding down the EUR. The market has remarkably little probability priced-in that the Fed hikes rates either in coming months or over 2017.  This suggests there is risk of higher US rates and a rebound in the USD if the Fed suggest that the outlook is more balanced in Fed minutes and Fed President speeches this week or Chair Yellen speech next week.  However, if the Fed shows any ambivalence the market may continue to dismiss the risk of higher US rates and resume its demand for higher yielding assets.  We don’t have a strong view at this stage – it may be getting late in the game to sell the USD given the risks China may pose to the upswing in emerging market assets.  However, emerging markets have been in recovery mode since January, punctuated in May/June by Brexit uncertainty and Fed overtures towards a summer hike.  It would be premature to say their recovery is mature. JPY is still in a strong trend this year and the BoJ has proven incapable of reversing this trend.  This may keep the market focused on selling USD in favor of higher yield currencies, and willing to ignore Fed rate hike risks unless the FOMC send a clear message that a hike is likely in coming months. Uncertainty over BoJ policy is likely to increase as we approach the 21 September BoJ meeting (the same day as the FOMC meeting). Every BoJ meeting this year has generated increased FX volatility.It has been a year of falling yields, rising asset prices and increased uncertainty and correction in FX markets.  Global growth confidence overall remains low.  In this environment we have frequently looked to gold to outperform most currencies.  Perhaps we are again at that juncture where increased uncertainty but low yields drive up gold.  And yet gold fell back to the bottom of its recent range on Friday and appears to be struggling to maintain its upward momentum since the Brexit vote.

It has been a complex period in currency markets since the Brexit vote.  The USD has been unusually weak considering the lift in its yield advantage.  JPY has been volatile and uncertainty over its direction remains high.  It has stalled recently as the market struggles to guess the BoJ’s next step.  Funds have flowed to emerging markets with renewed vigor in what began as a rebalancing away from the UK and Europe, supported by falling global bond yields, forcing markets to chase higher yielding assets.  The USD appears to have fallen as the default funding currency.  At the end of last week, surprisingly weak Chinese data interrupted an otherwise improving outlook for emerging market assets.  The GBP resumed its fall and may be again holding down the EUR. The market has remarkably little probability priced-in that the Fed hikes rates either in coming months or over 2017.  This suggests there is risk of higher US rates and a rebound in the USD if the Fed suggest that the outlook is more balanced in Fed minutes and Fed President speeches this week or Chair Yellen speech next week.  However, if the Fed shows any ambivalence the market may continue to dismiss the risk of higher US rates and resume its demand for higher yielding assets.  We don’t have a strong view at this stage – it may be getting late in the game to sell the USD given the risks China may pose to the upswing in emerging market assets.  However, emerging markets have been in recovery mode since January, punctuated in May/June by Brexit uncertainty and Fed overtures towards a summer hike.  It would be premature to say their recovery is mature. JPY is still in a strong trend this year and the BoJ has proven incapable of reversing this trend.  This may keep the market focused on selling USD in favor of higher yield currencies, and willing to ignore Fed rate hike risks unless the FOMC send a clear message that a hike is likely in coming months. Uncertainty over BoJ policy is likely to increase as we approach the 21 September BoJ meeting (the same day as the FOMC meeting). Every BoJ meeting this year has generated increased FX volatility.It has been a year of falling yields, rising asset prices and increased uncertainty and correction in FX markets.  Global growth confidence overall remains low.  In this environment we have frequently looked to gold to outperform most currencies.  Perhaps we are again at that juncture where increased uncertainty but low yields drive up gold.  And yet gold fell back to the bottom of its recent range on Friday and appears to be struggling to maintain its upward momentum since the Brexit vote.    

AmpGFX - Reviewing a Complex Period Since Brexit, FX Uncertainty Remains High