FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Chair Yellen signaled an incremental improvement in the outlook for rate increases, but she left out a lot of possible comments that might have narrowed the view on the timing of the next hike.  She appears to be keeping her options open. To more clearly move the needle in favor of a rate hike, the Fed would like to see clearer evidence that stronger payrolls is coinciding with other measures of a tightening/improving labor market; including lower unemployment, under-employment, part-time for economic reasons, higher hours worked and wages.US yields rose on Friday after Vice Chair Fischer comments. When asked, he agreed to the question, that “we should remain on the edge of our seats” for a possible hike in September and even two hikes by year end.  But Fischer also emphasized it depends on the data.Looking through the framework on how Yellen sees monetary policy, her speech suggests she may not be convinced yet that the Fed should hike in coming months, and if they do, it will be a long gap before hike three in the cycle.A key point to take out of all the Fed commentary over the last month is that there is increasing willingness to get another hike done this year, but there is also increasing wariness about hiking through the cycle.  The clearest take away is that the Fed is espousing a gradual and cautious approach.  This suggests that future hikes are more likely to be delayed on any evidence of stalling in growth and less likely to be accelerated on strength.The jump in USD/JPY on Friday after its repeated attempts to move below 100 in recent weeks may be a sign that the tide is turning for the USD/JPY.  Certainty there is a much lower bar for the BoJ to jump at the 21 September meeting.  The BoJ may only need to reassert its current policy agenda of targeting 80tn of net asset purchases per year and a negative cash rate target of -0.1% to sustain USD/JPY above 100.The next big market event will be the US payrolls report next week.  The Fed comments in recent weeks and at Jackson Hole have resumed intense focus on this report.  It is far from clear that this report will be strong enough to make the case for a 21 September hike.  Recent US economy data have been mixed.We see a risk that payrolls loses momentum again after two months of strong outcomes. This would be consistent with a weaker PMI employment components that averaged 50.4 for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices in July.This continues to be a difficult and complex period in markets.  The prospect of a gradual and cautious Fed is supporting higher yielding emerging market and commodity currencies.  But USD/JPY has been setting the tone for markets this year and is showing some signs of basing, which could restore broader support for in the USD.

Chair Yellen signaled an incremental improvement in the outlook for rate increases, but she left out a lot of possible comments that might have narrowed the view on the timing of the next hike.  She appears to be keeping her options open. To more clearly move the needle in favor of a rate hike, the Fed would like to see clearer evidence that stronger payrolls is coinciding with other measures of a tightening/improving labor market; including lower unemployment, under-employment, part-time for economic reasons, higher hours worked and wages.US yields rose on Friday after Vice Chair Fischer comments. When asked, he agreed to the question, that “we should remain on the edge of our seats” for a possible hike in September and even two hikes by year end.  But Fischer also emphasized it depends on the data.Looking through the framework on how Yellen sees monetary policy, her speech suggests she may not be convinced yet that the Fed should hike in coming months, and if they do, it will be a long gap before hike three in the cycle.A key point to take out of all the Fed commentary over the last month is that there is increasing willingness to get another hike done this year, but there is also increasing wariness about hiking through the cycle.  The clearest take away is that the Fed is espousing a gradual and cautious approach.  This suggests that future hikes are more likely to be delayed on any evidence of stalling in growth and less likely to be accelerated on strength.The jump in USD/JPY on Friday after its repeated attempts to move below 100 in recent weeks may be a sign that the tide is turning for the USD/JPY.  Certainty there is a much lower bar for the BoJ to jump at the 21 September meeting.  The BoJ may only need to reassert its current policy agenda of targeting 80tn of net asset purchases per year and a negative cash rate target of -0.1% to sustain USD/JPY above 100.The next big market event will be the US payrolls report next week.  The Fed comments in recent weeks and at Jackson Hole have resumed intense focus on this report.  It is far from clear that this report will be strong enough to make the case for a 21 September hike.  Recent US economy data have been mixed.We see a risk that payrolls loses momentum again after two months of strong outcomes. This would be consistent with a weaker PMI employment components that averaged 50.4 for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices in July.This continues to be a difficult and complex period in markets.  The prospect of a gradual and cautious Fed is supporting higher yielding emerging market and commodity currencies.  But USD/JPY has been setting the tone for markets this year and is showing some signs of basing, which could restore broader support for in the USD.

AmpGFX - Fed Gradual and Cautious, JPY Sets Tone