FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The panic in global markets in the first month of the year has reversed course and there has been almost as much panic to get back into the markets that people exited in the first place. Emerging market currencies are leading the charge higher boosted by a reversal of fortunes in the energy market, a change of scenery in China, and further policy easing in Japan and Europe.A testament to the supportive power of the ECB policy announcement last week is a surge in European and USA corporate bonds.US yields have been rising along with the rebound in global asset markets since 11 Feb, more so than other major markets, and even most developed market commodity currencies. This should eventually return to support the USD, although market sentiment towards the USD may take time to improve.The weaker USD trend itself may be helping restore global investor confidence, creating better optics for those currencies that manage their currencies against a basket.  For instance even though the CNY is at its strongest level against the USD since early-December, China’s official currency basket index is at a low in data publishes since the beginning of the year.  A weaker dollar may lessen the size of foreign debt in many emerging currencies and help establish a rising trend in their currencies. US energy market rebalancing supports oil prices but also points to stronger overall USA demand that may improve the outlook for the USD.This week two key central banks outline their current policy stance.  The FOMC again meets with the glare of the global markets focused firmly on how it describes the outlook for policy.  The market appears to have presumed policy tightening has been put on a slower path to account for greater uncertainty in the global economy and lower inflation expectations.  However, a good deal of that uncertainty has diminished in recent weeks.  US data has been mixed, but crucially the labor market remains strong and on balance the risk may be leaning towards the Fed disappointing expectations of sounding more dovish.The BoJ will also release a quarterly update and it is possible that it decides to further enhance its monetary policy easing, although after a disappointing result from its negative interest rate policy decision on 29-Jan, few anticipate they will cut rates further; at least at this stage. The BoJ is likely to be quite perturbed by the strength of the JPY since its NIRP.  It may argue it wants to give the policy more time to work its way through the market, but indicate it is willing to cut again if it has to.

The panic in global markets in the first month of the year has reversed course and there has been almost as much panic to get back into the markets that people exited in the first place. Emerging market currencies are leading the charge higher boosted by a reversal of fortunes in the energy market, a change of scenery in China, and further policy easing in Japan and Europe.A testament to the supportive power of the ECB policy announcement last week is a surge in European and USA corporate bonds.US yields have been rising along with the rebound in global asset markets since 11 Feb, more so than other major markets, and even most developed market commodity currencies. This should eventually return to support the USD, although market sentiment towards the USD may take time to improve.The weaker USD trend itself may be helping restore global investor confidence, creating better optics for those currencies that manage their currencies against a basket.  For instance even though the CNY is at its strongest level against the USD since early-December, China’s official currency basket index is at a low in data publishes since the beginning of the year.  A weaker dollar may lessen the size of foreign debt in many emerging currencies and help establish a rising trend in their currencies. US energy market rebalancing supports oil prices but also points to stronger overall USA demand that may improve the outlook for the USD.This week two key central banks outline their current policy stance.  The FOMC again meets with the glare of the global markets focused firmly on how it describes the outlook for policy.  The market appears to have presumed policy tightening has been put on a slower path to account for greater uncertainty in the global economy and lower inflation expectations.  However, a good deal of that uncertainty has diminished in recent weeks.  US data has been mixed, but crucially the labor market remains strong and on balance the risk may be leaning towards the Fed disappointing expectations of sounding more dovish.The BoJ will also release a quarterly update and it is possible that it decides to further enhance its monetary policy easing, although after a disappointing result from its negative interest rate policy decision on 29-Jan, few anticipate they will cut rates further; at least at this stage. The BoJ is likely to be quite perturbed by the strength of the JPY since its NIRP.  It may argue it wants to give the policy more time to work its way through the market, but indicate it is willing to cut again if it has to.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK)

AmpGFX - Chinese Macro Data Weak, but Property Indicators Much Stronger