FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US economic data has continued to disappoint most noticeably with weak retail sales extending from July into August. This has undermined the USD, although overall FX markets appear in extended choppy directionless patterns.  The chance of a Fed rate hike next week has diminished to negligible levels.  Judging by recent comments by most FOMC members, we still expect most dots to project a hike in December.  But the risk is still that dots are revised down in 2017 and 2018 and attention is refocussed on the gradual and shallow outlook of most Fed members.  This might undermine the USD, but the BoJ meeting appears likely to overshadow the Fed this time.  Despite the soft US data, longer-term yields globally remain sticky after recent gains, and bond yields appear to be in a rising trend.  We see the BoJ meeting potentially propelling this trend with further negative fall-out to global bond markets.  Much may depend on the performance of the JPY in the wake of the BoJ meeting.  A weaker JPY will tend to reinforce a correction higher in long-term bond yields, spilling over to a further correction in global equities, emerging market and commodity currencies. A secondary risk for global asset markets at this time is the US election.  The more the market considers the risk of a Trump presidency or a close outcome, the more it must factor in higher fiscal stimulus and closed borders in the US to trade and people.  This would point to more asset market volatility with a bias towards higher yields, a stronger USD and weaker equities. However, while a number of roadblocks appear in the way for emerging markets, several large emerging market economies are exhibiting more government stability and stronger economic momentum, pointing to a more robust medium-term outlook.

US economic data has continued to disappoint most noticeably with weak retail sales extending from July into August. This has undermined the USD, although overall FX markets appear in extended choppy directionless patterns.  The chance of a Fed rate hike next week has diminished to negligible levels.  Judging by recent comments by most FOMC members, we still expect most dots to project a hike in December.  But the risk is still that dots are revised down in 2017 and 2018 and attention is refocussed on the gradual and shallow outlook of most Fed members.  This might undermine the USD, but the BoJ meeting appears likely to overshadow the Fed this time.  Despite the soft US data, longer-term yields globally remain sticky after recent gains, and bond yields appear to be in a rising trend.  We see the BoJ meeting potentially propelling this trend with further negative fall-out to global bond markets.  Much may depend on the performance of the JPY in the wake of the BoJ meeting.  A weaker JPY will tend to reinforce a correction higher in long-term bond yields, spilling over to a further correction in global equities, emerging market and commodity currencies. A secondary risk for global asset markets at this time is the US election.  The more the market considers the risk of a Trump presidency or a close outcome, the more it must factor in higher fiscal stimulus and closed borders in the US to trade and people.  This would point to more asset market volatility with a bias towards higher yields, a stronger USD and weaker equities. However, while a number of roadblocks appear in the way for emerging markets, several large emerging market economies are exhibiting more government stability and stronger economic momentum, pointing to a more robust medium-term outlook.

AmpGFX - BoJ to Overshadow the Fed, Upward Pressure on Bond Yields and Other Roadblocks