Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

A veteran with 19-year experience in equity research.

Geographical coverage:
* Companies operating in China, but listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
* Previously China A-share (listed in mainland China).

Equity sector coverage:
* Chinese App / Internet-based consumption in China, e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, etc.
* Previously covered education, transportation, telecom, power, bank, advertisement, hotel, etc.

Research methods:
* Generally bottom-up.
* Talk to related people on the ground.  Talk to readers and independent writers for analyzing a news portal.  Talk to parents and teachers for analyzing a tutoring school. 
* Visit stores and show photos as evidence in notes.
* Do technical analysis when finding a short-seller attacking an equity.

Languages:
* English
* Mandarin Chinese (Official language of China)
* Shanghainese (Language of Shanghai, the most developed city in China)
* Cantonese (Language of Hong Kong and Canton Province, one of the most developed provinces in China)

Overseas Chinese Equities

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 1 - Six Mini-Alibabas - Some Are More Ready than Others to List

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 3 - An Early Look at Cloud, Easy US$10bn+

Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q23, Physical Store Revenue Decreased for First Time, Downgrade to Hold

Alibaba (9988 HK): Chinese Authorities Turning Opposite to Encourage Non-State-Owned Companies

Alibaba (9988 HK): “Department One” in Reorganization

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe revenue will grow by 5.6% YoY in 4Q23 and by 9% in FY2023 versus 2.7% in FY2022.</li>
<li>We also believe operating margin will improve slightly to 8.9% in 4Q23 versus 8.2% in 4Q22.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 63% for March 2024.</li>
</ul>


We believe revenue will grow by 5.6% YoY in 4Q23 and by 9% in FY2023 versus 2.7% in FY2022.
We also believe operating margin will improve slightly to 8.9% in 4Q23 versus 8.2% in 4Q22.
We believe the stock has an upside of 63% for March 2024.


Alibaba (9988 HK) Earnings Preview: Better Growth and Better Margin for 4Q23