Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Politics, Uncertainty and Bad Policy: The Third Wheels of Profits and the Investment Cycle

World War Three: Part 2 – Growth, No Deus Ex Machina

The United States: 2019 Set Fair but Then?

Ten Years On - Asia's Time Is Coming, Don't Miss The Boat

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>What a tough year 2018 was for emerging markets, in equities, fixed income and currencies. It seems to us that Asia’s fundamentals – whether it be earnings growth, debt vulnerability or external balance – were cast aside as concerns about trade wars, the strong dollar, interest rate rises and ‘liquidity’ took centre stage. In short, 2018 was a risk-off year. What about 2019?</p><p>We foresee more growth in the global economy in 2019 even if it is at a slower pace in the US (although a stronger one in China). We are of the view that the US rate cycle has already peaked and that the dollar will weaken as the year progresses. Moreover, we expect funds to focus much more on the relative attractiveness of emerging market valuations, especially in areas where currency and debt vulnerabilities are low.</p>

What a tough year 2018 was for emerging markets, in equities, fixed income and currencies. It seems to us that Asia’s fundamentals – whether it be earnings growth, debt vulnerability or external balance – were cast aside as concerns about trade wars, the strong dollar, interest rate rises and ‘liquidity’ took centre stage. In short, 2018 was a risk-off year. What about 2019?We foresee more growth in the global economy in 2019 even if it is at a slower pace in the US (although a stronger one in China). We are of the view that the US rate cycle has already peaked and that the dollar will weaken as the year progresses. Moreover, we expect funds to focus much more on the relative attractiveness of emerging market valuations, especially in areas where currency and debt vulnerabilities are low.

Aletheia Capital's Macro Investment Strategy for 2019