Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

A Secular Slowdown in Global Growth? The Survival Instinct Is in Asia

Investing in a Zombie World: Long-Term Strategy

Asean Growth – Investment Cycles and Lending Rates

Real Lending Rates and the Investment Cycle

Politics, Uncertainty and Bad Policy: The Third Wheels of Profits and the Investment Cycle

Aletheia Capital's Macro Investment Strategy for 2019

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>In Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/politics-uncertainty-and-bad-policy-the-third-wheels-of-profits-and-the-investment-cycle" target="_blank">Third Wheels of Profits and the Investment Cycle</a>, we looked at the signal being sent by returns on equity in stock markets and explained the central role of the profit mechanism in economic growth and how it impacts the investment cycle. We also showed how the profit cycle can be thwarted with incorrect price signals sent by real lending rates. We explain how the two cycles are linked using Asian Return on Equity (ROE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation and what we expect to find when they are co-ordinated with examples from three of the countries we monitor.</p>

In Insight, Third Wheels of Profits and the Investment Cycle, we looked at the signal being sent by returns on equity in stock markets and explained the central role of the profit mechanism in economic growth and how it impacts the investment cycle. We also showed how the profit cycle can be thwarted with incorrect price signals sent by real lending rates. We explain how the two cycles are linked using Asian Return on Equity (ROE) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation and what we expect to find when they are co-ordinated with examples from three of the countries we monitor.

Profits and Investment: Linked Cycles