China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

[ACM Research Inc. (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) Earnings Preview]: Tool Monopoly for Next YMTC Expansion

[ACM Research (ACMR US)]: Preferred Local Tool Supplier Beginning Global Ascent

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China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect ACMR to report C4Q22 top-line, non-IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 21% and 96% vs. consensus, respectively. </li>
<li>New SPE import limits provide ACMR with a multi category quasi-monopoly. Thus, we raise our FY23 market share estimate for ECD/wafer clean/furnace to 51%/32%/2% from prior 25%/25%/0%.</li>
<li>ACMR’s quasi-monopoly position in multiple categories sustain its long-run growth, which underlines a 58% TP increase to US$ 30 and continued status as our top hardware pick.</li>
</ul>


We expect ACMR to report C4Q22 top-line, non-IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 21% and 96% vs. consensus, respectively. 
New SPE import limits provide ACMR with a multi category quasi-monopoly. Thus, we raise our FY23 market share estimate for ECD/wafer clean/furnace to 51%/32%/2% from prior 25%/25%/0%.
ACMR’s quasi-monopoly position in multiple categories sustain its long-run growth, which underlines a 58% TP increase to US$ 30 and continued status as our top hardware pick.


[ACM Research Inc. (ACMR US, BUY, TP US$30) TP Change]: At the Foothill of a Multi-Category Monopoly