Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

5 Things We Watch: US Recession, US Inflation, Euro Inflation, PCE Vs CPI, STIR Pricing

5 Things We Watch – Freight Rates, Positioning, Liquidity, EUR-flation, Growth

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EUR, China Stimulus, Euro PMIs, Nikkei, Suez </li><li>The last month of 2023 really showcased markets’ proclaimed inflation victory, with the Fed and other central banks promising rate cuts, disinflation trends continuing and equity prices rocketing, but the disinflation might be over, at least in the US as risks of higher inflation have been anchored in expectations.</li><li>Judging from relative inflation swaps, we have now exited the inflation convergence regime for 2022/2023 when markets convinced themselves that the inflation embeddedness was as much a European thing as it was an American thing.</li></ul>

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EUR, China Stimulus, Euro PMIs, Nikkei, Suez The last month of 2023 really showcased markets’ proclaimed inflation victory, with the Fed and other central banks promising rate cuts, disinflation trends continuing and equity prices rocketing, but the disinflation might be over, at least in the US as risks of higher inflation have been anchored in expectations.Judging from relative inflation swaps, we have now exited the inflation convergence regime for 2022/2023 when markets convinced themselves that the inflation embeddedness was as much a European thing as it was an American thing.

5 Things – Inflation Divergence, China, Euro PMIs, NIkkei and Suez