Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

Does Chile’s Rate Curve Flattening Offer an Opportunity?

Outliers Within EM Rates Amid Rising Volatility of US Rates

Flattening of Rate Curves in EM Far Exceeds the US

Higher Correlation with US Yields but Less Differentiation Within EM Rates

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>This year started with curves steepening across EM following the US. However, as the year progressed, central banks in many countries embarked on aggressive rate hikes, leading to curve flattening.</li>
<li>The flattening may have gone too far in some countries as growth and inflationary pressures should start easing from the lagged effect of monetary tightening, leading to bullish steepening.</li>
<li>The short end should start pricing in eventual rate cuts in a few countries, while the risk premium in the long end should persist because of the pandemic-driven fiscal deterioration.</li>
</ul>


This year started with curves steepening across EM following the US. However, as the year progressed, central banks in many countries embarked on aggressive rate hikes, leading to curve flattening.
The flattening may have gone too far in some countries as growth and inflationary pressures should start easing from the lagged effect of monetary tightening, leading to bullish steepening.
The short end should start pricing in eventual rate cuts in a few countries, while the risk premium in the long end should persist because of the pandemic-driven fiscal deterioration.


2022 High Conviction: Thematic Rate Curve Steepening Trades in EM

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

2022 High Conviction: Thematic Rate Curve Steepening Trades in EM