Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

TOPIX FFW Rebalance Post-Mortem - Finished Strong

Yahoo Japan: Something Is Better Than Nothing?

Zozo: What Are the Downside Risks Post-Tender Close?

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Yesterday after the close the TSE announced its Free Float Weight changes for companies listed on the TSE which have a fiscal year ending in the first calendar quarter. This leads to changes in sub-indices (i.e. moves from TPX500 to TPXSmall and vice versa). 
The changes, as announced, suggest $20 billion of flows, with 32 different names to trade over US$100mm, and 40 names to trade over 10 days' worth of 3-month ADV. These changes take place at the close of 30 October.
My estimate was that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> would be raised to 0.50 float weight coefficient. The number turns out to be 0.45. I cannot see how it got there, but the TSE calls the shots. 
At yesterday's close, Z Holdings is the second largest net buy behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">Smc Corp (6273 JP)</a> round out the top five.
Among large selldowns, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> are the two largest followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a>.
The list of ADV impact is full of small companies on both the buy side and the sell side, with no names with more than $8mm to sell or buy within the top 25 impact trades on either side.

Yesterday after the close the TSE announced its Free Float Weight changes for companies listed on the TSE which have a fiscal year ending in the first calendar quarter. This leads to changes in sub-indices (i.e. moves from TPX500 to TPXSmall and vice versa). 
The changes, as announced, suggest $20 billion of flows, with 32 different names to trade over US$100mm, and 40 names to trade over 10 days' worth of 3-month ADV. These changes take place at the close of 30 October.
My estimate was that Z Holdings (4689 JP) would be raised to 0.50 float weight coefficient. The number turns out to be 0.45. I cannot see how it got there, but the TSE calls the shots. 
At yesterday's close, Z Holdings is the second largest net buy behind NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP). Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP), Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP), and Smc Corp (6273 JP) round out the top five.
Among large selldowns, Keyence Corp (6861 JP) and Softbank Group (9984 JP) are the two largest followed by Sony Corp (6758 JP), Sony Corp (6758 JP), and KDDI Corp (9433 JP).
The list of ADV impact is full of small companies on both the buy side and the sell side, with no names with more than $8mm to sell or buy within the top 25 impact trades on either side.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

LY

2019 TOPIX FFW Rebalance