2019 Elections - Part 4. South Africa: Ramaphosa - ANC’s Magician?

832 Views08 Feb 2019 09:32

SUMMARY

The ANC is expected to win a majority in the elections next year. Even if the margin of victory falls below expectations, Ramaphosa can work towards the goal of reprogramming an economy, left to drift under Zuma’s administration, marked by partisanship and patronage, towards greater economic stability rooted in investment. The business climate in South Africa has improved markedly since Ramaphosa was installed at the helm of the ANC though the contentious land question instils caution and needs to be managed delicately: politicians must avoid land reform becoming an all-consuming and divisive issue. Ramaphosa has a pro-business image which is invaluable at this crossroads moment for South Africa. The nation desperately needs to transform sky-high joblessness among the young into a generation of entrepreneurs with a stake in the modern economy of the future. Regarding risk assets, South Africa is blessed with opportunity, not just in mining, but also in the financial space. South Africa also has an extremely volatile currency which affects investor decision-making though FX implied volatility has declined 155 basis points since the start of the year.

This insight is Part 4 of a six-part series on 2019 elections in which we evaluate key polls and their potential to re-shape the economic outlook and investment risk profiles. These six markets - Thailand, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Greece and Argentina - collectively represent one-quarter of the world’s population and more than $5 trillion in GDP. We review distinct domestic challenges as well as campaign pledges by incumbents (and their challengers) aimed at addressing them. We also humbly assign probabilities to baseline and alternative scenarios and their implications for macroeconomic outlook and investments.

Even amidst their diversity, these six jurisdictions display some remarkable similarities: subdued economic momentum, bouts of market volatility, signs of voter disquiet and/or disillusionment and an opposition looking to capitalize on all of these forces. In a bid to revive the ‘magic’ that had helped to install their administrations, many incumbent governments are now on the defence - either changing tack (and dialing back past policies) or attempting to convince voters to let their policies work their magic.

Summary - Election timeline, political risk classification and market implications:

	Election date (2019)	Degree of uncertainty	Baseline scenario (%)	Market implications	Market view
Thailand	24 March	Medium to High	Elections are held and pro-junta PP keeps control (65%)	Medium to Low	THB: Stable unless political uncertainty erodes confidence, tourism ThaiGB: Stable CDS: Gradually wider SET: Energy, materials and capital goods favoured. More upside in non-bank financials vs financials.
Indonesia	17 April	Low	Jokowi re-elected, PDIP coalition intact (75%)	Medium	IDR/IndoGB: Constructive INDON: Stable JCI: prefer energy, materials, services, capital goods, transportation, and telco. Cautious on main banks.
India	April to May	High	BJP/NDA retain power, with smaller majority (60%)	High	INR/IGB: Steeper curve (bearish long-end) CDS: Wider on potential negative sovereign outlook Nifty: Cautious healthcare and banks. Overweight IT.
South Africa	7-31 May	Medium to High	ANC retains power (80%)	High	ZAR/SAGB: Constructive SOAF: Constructive JSE Top40: Constructive on Financials. Cautious on consumer.
Greece	20 October	Medium to High	ND returns to power (52%)	Medium to High	GGBs/CDS: Scope to tighten vs periphery peers AEX: Banks may revive though European credit markets need to be watched. Energy, Infra, and utilities offer opportunity. Gaming too.
Argentina	27 October	High	Cambiemos retains power (52%)	High	ARS/Argtes: Peso richly valued but slower inflation positive for Argtes ARGENT: Volatile Merval: Volatile. Optically cheap valuations signify risk and weak growth. Hydrocarbons could be a winner. Cautious on consumer.

Source: Authors' assessment

Historical 5yr CDS (Argentina and Greece = LHS, all others RHS):

Historical Equity Indices (rebased where 1 Jan-2018 = 100):

Please refer to other insights in this series:

Elections 2019 - Part 1. Thailand: Magic Moment for Democracy’s Return?
Elections 2019 - Part 2. Indonesia: Jokowi’s Policies - Magic Bullet or Bitter Pill?
Elections 2019 - Part 3. India: Modi’s Magic Touch Fades as Populism Makes a Comeback
Elections 2019 - Part 4. South Africa: Ramaphosa - ANC’s Magician?
Elections 2019 - Part 5. Greece: New Democracy Promises Magic Makeover
Elections 2019 - Part 6. Argentina: Macri Magic and the Peronist Spell

This series is co-authored by Paul Hollingworth at Creative Portfolios and Virgil Fernandez Esguerra.

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