Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Hong kong Energy / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetings<ul><li>Hong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…</li><li>Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…</li><li>Space X and other cool updates</li><li>Three scenarios 2016</li><li>A last word on faulty data</li></ul>Long note with core views and investment ideas up front.

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetingsHong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…Space X and other cool updatesThree scenarios 2016A last word on faulty dataLong note with core views and investment ideas up front.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK US)

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG US)

2016 Names Not Trades and a Tough Energy Environment (And Other Recent Visits)