China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ,and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down (0.4ppt) QoQ due to seasonality. </li>
<li>ZTO benefits from the recovery of eCommerce and industry volume. It is highly competitive both in pricing and in service quality, which fend off peers under escalating competition into 2023.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$35.0 due to industry rebound and ZTO’s competitive edges in service and pricing. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.</li>
</ul>


Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ,and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down (0.4ppt) QoQ due to seasonality. 
ZTO benefits from the recovery of eCommerce and industry volume. It is highly competitive both in pricing and in service quality, which fend off peers under escalating competition into 2023.
Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$35.0 due to industry rebound and ZTO’s competitive edges in service and pricing. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.


ZTO Express(ZTO.US) 4Q22 Preview: Maintain Leadership and Benefit from Industry Rebound

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period</li>
<li>
<p>Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce sellers, typically see a lower volume of packages over the Lunar New Year when those businesses shut down. </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Consumers generally buy their new years goods around a month before the festival, when such firms plan for a rush.</p>
</li>
</ul>


China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period

Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce sellers, typically see a lower volume of packages over the Lunar New Year when those businesses shut down. 


Consumers generally buy their new years goods around a month before the festival, when such firms plan for a rush.



China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Richard Liu came back to manage JD.com after he resigned half a year ago.</li>
<li>Alibaba Health revenue increased 23% YoY in 1H23, which benefited from hospitals being closed.</li>
<li>Pinduoduo revenue increased by 65% YoY and operating profit increased 388% YoY in 3Q22.</li>
</ul>


Richard Liu came back to manage JD.com after he resigned half a year ago.
Alibaba Health revenue increased 23% YoY in 1H23, which benefited from hospitals being closed.
Pinduoduo revenue increased by 65% YoY and operating profit increased 388% YoY in 3Q22.


China Internet Weekly (5Dec2022): JD.com, Baidu, IQiyi, Alibaba Health, ZTO, Pinduoduo, KE

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)</a>'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  </li>
<li>It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. </li>
<li>We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  
It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. 
We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 7th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in AIA Group and Yum China.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 7th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in AIA Group and Yum China.


China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)

ZTO Express(ZTO.US) 4Q22 Preview: Maintain Leadership and Benefit from Industry Rebound

Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ, and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period. Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce...

Caixin Global

China Internet Weekly (5Dec2022): JD.com, Baidu, IQiyi, Alibaba Health, ZTO, Pinduoduo, KE

Richard Liu came back to manage JD.com after he resigned half a year ago. Alibaba Health revenue increased 23% YoY in 1H23, which benefited from...

Ming Lu

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Yum China

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of October 7th and highlight short interest changes in AIA and Yum China.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ZTO Express(ZTO.US) 4Q22 Preview: Maintain Leadership and Benefit from Industry Rebound

Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ, and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Couriers Hike Lunar New Year Prices as Delivery Riders Head Home

China’s major express couriers will charge more for their services over the Lunar New Year period. Express couriers, which mainly serve e-commerce...

Caixin Global

China Internet Weekly (5Dec2022): JD.com, Baidu, IQiyi, Alibaba Health, ZTO, Pinduoduo, KE

Richard Liu came back to manage JD.com after he resigned half a year ago. Alibaba Health revenue increased 23% YoY in 1H23, which benefited from...

Ming Lu

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Yum China

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of October 7th and highlight short interest changes in AIA and Yum China.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact