Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review cutoff done, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp H (763 HK)</a> are expected to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-coal-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:383:1" rel="noopener">China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp H (763 HK)</a> has broken out to new highs (possibly on short covering) while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-coal-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:383:1" rel="noopener">China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK)</a> continues to sell off.</li>
</ul>


With the review cutoff done, there could be two changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March.

Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and ZTE Corp H (763 HK) are expected to replace China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) and China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK). 

ZTE Corp H (763 HK) has broken out to new highs (possibly on short covering) while China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK) continues to sell off.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Sets of Changes as ZTE Breaks Out, China Coal Dumps

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was not stronger per day than the previous two weeks. But SB Net Buying was HUGE. The biggest week since global index deletions in January 2021.</li>
<li>The story was similar. On Tuesday in the US, Tencent was put on a DoD list leading to a possible CMC list appearance (which would lead to index deletions).</li>
<li>Tencent saw US$4bn of SOUTHBOUND net buying. SMIC, Xiaomi, and China Mobile were another $1bn.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was not stronger per day than the previous two weeks. But SB Net Buying was HUGE. The biggest week since global index deletions in January 2021.
The story was similar. On Tuesday in the US, Tencent was put on a DoD list leading to a possible CMC list appearance (which would lead to index deletions).
Tencent saw US$4bn of SOUTHBOUND net buying. SMIC, Xiaomi, and China Mobile were another $1bn.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ZTE released 3Q24 results. 3Q revenue was RMB27.6bn, down 3.9% YoY and 13.6% QoQ. GPM was 40.4% in 3Q24 (vs. 39.0%/44.6% in 2Q24/3Q23).</li><li>NP was RMB2.2bn, down 8.2% YoY and 27.3% QoQ. The decline was mainly due to lower telecom spending in China (~5% decrease in domestic telcos’ capex in 2024) and the delayed progress in ZTE’s AI servers.</li><li>Looking forward, we expect the company’s overall growth to be flat this year and grow 8.2% in 2025E, driven by double-digit growth in overseas carrier/consumer/enterprise &amp; gov’t segments, partially offset by domestic telecom weakness.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTE released 3Q24 results. 3Q revenue was RMB27.6bn, down 3.9% YoY and 13.6% QoQ. GPM was 40.4% in 3Q24 (vs. 39.0%/44.6% in 2Q24/3Q23).NP was RMB2.2bn, down 8.2% YoY and 27.3% QoQ. The decline was mainly due to lower telecom spending in China (~5% decrease in domestic telcos’ capex in 2024) and the delayed progress in ZTE’s AI servers.Looking forward, we expect the company’s overall growth to be flat this year and grow 8.2% in 2025E, driven by double-digit growth in overseas carrier/consumer/enterprise &amp; gov’t segments, partially offset by domestic telecom weakness.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTE (763 HK) - Stable GPM Despite Domestic Telecom Headwinds

<ul><li>ZTE’s announced 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 2.9% YoY to RMB62.5bn, while net profit grew by 4.8% YoY to RMB5.7bn in 1H24.</li><li>Despite the headwinds from declining capex of domestic telcos for ZTE’s carrier business, non-carrier businesses managed to grew double-digits (14.3% and 56.1% YoY growth in consumer and gov’t/enterprise segments).</li><li>On a quarterly basis, Q2 revenue increased by 1.1% YoY / 4.4% QoQ, while net profit increased by 5.7% YoY / 9.1% QoQ. GPM declined sequentially to 39%, mainly due to unfavorable product mix (i.e., lower contribution from high-margin carrier segment). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZTE’s announced 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 2.9% YoY to RMB62.5bn, while net profit grew by 4.8% YoY to RMB5.7bn in 1H24.Despite the headwinds from declining capex of domestic telcos for ZTE’s carrier business, non-carrier businesses managed to grew double-digits (14.3% and 56.1% YoY growth in consumer and gov’t/enterprise segments).On a quarterly basis, Q2 revenue increased by 1.1% YoY / 4.4% QoQ, while net profit increased by 5.7% YoY / 9.1% QoQ. GPM declined sequentially to 39%, mainly due to unfavorable product mix (i.e., lower contribution from high-margin carrier segment). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China

ZTE Corporation develops and markets switches, access servers, videoconferencing systems, mobile communication systems, data communication devices, and optical communication devices.  The Company also offers networking solutions for setup, refurbishment and optimization of networks.

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ZTE Corp H (763 HK)

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Sets of Changes as ZTE Breaks Out, China Coal Dumps

GTJA and ZTE could replace CTG Duty Free and China Coal in the FXI ETF in March. Alibaba and Tencent will be sold on capping, Meituan bought. ZTE...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent

Gross SOUTHBOUND flows were not larger this week on a daily basis than over the holiday weeks, but SOUTHBOUND bought Tencent with a vengeance as it...

Travis Lundy

ZTE (763 HK) - Stable GPM Despite Domestic Telecom Headwinds

ZTE released 3Q24 results. 3Q revenue was RMB27.6bn, down 3.9% YoY and 13.6% QoQ. GPM was 40.4% in 3Q24 (vs. 39.0%/44.6% in 2Q24/3Q23).

CMB International

ZTE (000063 CH) - Mixed 1H24 Results

ZTE’s announced 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 2.9% YoY to RMB62.5bn, while net profit grew by 4.8% YoY to RMB5.7bn in 1H24.

CMB International

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FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Sets of Changes as ZTE Breaks Out, China Coal Dumps

GTJA and ZTE could replace CTG Duty Free and China Coal in the FXI ETF in March. Alibaba and Tencent will be sold on capping, Meituan bought. ZTE...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 10 Jan 2025); YUUUUGE Net Buying by SB, $4bn on Tencent

Gross SOUTHBOUND flows were not larger this week on a daily basis than over the holiday weeks, but SOUTHBOUND bought Tencent with a vengeance as it...

Travis Lundy

The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

ZTE (763 HK) - Stable GPM Despite Domestic Telecom Headwinds

ZTE released 3Q24 results. 3Q revenue was RMB27.6bn, down 3.9% YoY and 13.6% QoQ. GPM was 40.4% in 3Q24 (vs. 39.0%/44.6% in 2Q24/3Q23).

CMB International

ZTE (000063 CH) - Mixed 1H24 Results

ZTE’s announced 1H24 results. Revenue increased by 2.9% YoY to RMB62.5bn, while net profit grew by 4.8% YoY to RMB5.7bn in 1H24.

CMB International