Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.</li>
<li>Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. </li>
<li>On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.</li>
</ul>


In 2020 and 2021 we had nine conviction calls, four of which returned over 50% within just over a year.
Three more returned close to 40%, one returned 15% and just one was an abject failure returning -39%. 
On average, alpha generation was 24.3% and our 2022 names are off to a good start putting up 14.7% in alpha in just over a month and a half.


A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Telecom companies are traditionally "easy" to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.</li>
<li>In comparing Japan's telcos, I believe when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.</li>
<li>Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.</li>
</ul>


Telecom companies are traditionally "easy" to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.
In comparing Japan's telcos, I believe when Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.
Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.


Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The clothing sections of GMS chains and supermarkets have declined so far in relevance that most assume the format will disappear entirely. </li>
<li>But new efforts by Aeon, as well as collaborations by the likes of Ito-Yokado, could lead to a new lease of life and higher margins.</li>
<li>This may impact on retailers like Shimamura but the more likely result will be new opportunities to takeover supermarket apparel floors as Adastria is doing already.</li>
</ul>


The clothing sections of GMS chains and supermarkets have declined so far in relevance that most assume the format will disappear entirely. 
But new efforts by Aeon, as well as collaborations by the likes of Ito-Yokado, could lead to a new lease of life and higher margins.
This may impact on retailers like Shimamura but the more likely result will be new opportunities to takeover supermarket apparel floors as Adastria is doing already.


<ul>
<li>Yutori , the Zozo-controlled online fashion mall, is diversifying into cosmetics and other items, with wholesale distribution to chain stores as well as sales through its own mall.</li>
<li>The fledgling online mall continues to grow fast, with sales up 74% so far this year.</li>
<li>It is in essence Zozo 20 years ago given its focus on the teen and youth market but with the difference in that it has Zozo's experience and advice.</li>
</ul>


Yutori , the Zozo-controlled online fashion mall, is diversifying into cosmetics and other items, with wholesale distribution to chain stores as well as sales through its own mall.
The fledgling online mall continues to grow fast, with sales up 74% so far this year.
It is in essence Zozo 20 years ago given its focus on the teen and youth market but with the difference in that it has Zozo's experience and advice.


Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in July. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 5-16x ADV (10.1%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 4-42x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will be capped to 10% of the index weight while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> is also close to the 10% cap.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in July. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 5-16x ADV (10.1%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 4-42x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will be capped to 10% of the index weight while Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) is also close to the 10% cap.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Japan

ASKUL Corporation sells office equipment products to medium and small sized business offices via the Internet and facsimiles.  The Company provides next day delivery services throughout Japan.

BELLUNA CO., LTD. is a mail-order company offering clothing, household goods, and hobby goods through catalogs.  The Company also provides financing service.

Oisix ra daichi Inc. sells various food products online. Among other products, the company sells vegetables, fruits, fish, meat, milk, and ready-made food.

Ci Medical Co.,Ltd. manufactures and sells dental care products by mail order. The Company provides dental care products, toothbrushes, and other products. Ci Medical also operates dental magazines publishing.

Demae-can Co., Ltd. operates websites offering comprehensive delivery services.  The Company's websites allow users to order food, dry cleaning, and repair and recycling services through the Internet.

Scroll Corporation operates catalog mail order business.  The Company sells ladies' apparel and underwear and also sundry goods.  The Company sells its merchandise through on-line stores.  Muto also sells Kimono, furs, and precious stones at exhibition.

Beenos Inc sells various type of merchandise using group-buying method through Internet. The Company's merchandises include fashion goods, brand goods, convenience goods, baby goods, and toiletry goods.

Syuppin Co., Ltd. operates a used merchandise business. It buys and sells used and new merchandises both online and in stores.

Evolable Asia Corp. is an online travel agency providing airline tickets and overseas hotel booking through direct-sales websites and OEM. The company also engages in offshore development in Southeast Asia and inbound trip services.

Hamee Corp. designs and wholesales Smart Phone accessories and offers e-commerce service to sell their products. The Company also develops and provides Cloud type management platform for e-commerce businesses.

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

Wayfair Inc. retails household goods online. The Company offers bedroom, living room, kitchen and dining, home entertainment, home office, game room and bar, patio, hallway and entryway, and bathroom furniture. Wayfair offers products and services in the United States.

Mango Excellent Media Co.,Ltd. offers television based services. The Company provides television shopping, online shopping, outbound shopping, and other services. Mango Excellent Media also operates new media platform operation.

Momo.com Inc is an e-commerce services company. The Company offers TV shopping and Internet shopping services, including beauty products, clothing, leather goods and food shops.

Ocado Group PLC distributes a wide range of retail consumer products.  The Company provides home delivery of a wide range of products including food and drink, toiletries and baby, household, pet care, and holiday products.

TripAdvisor Inc. is an online travel research company. The Company's travel research platform aggregates reviews and opinions of members about destinations, accommodations (including hotels, bed and breakfasts ("B&Bs"), specialty lodging and vacation rentals), restaurants and activities throughout the world.

Webjet Limited provides branded online travel services for travelers.  The Company offers one-stop travel shopping and reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing, and availability information for airlines hotels, and major car rental companies.

zooplus AG retails pet supplies over the Internet.

CJ ENM, Ltd. retails clothes, kitchen utensils, home appliances, and jewelry.  The Company sells its merchandise through TV home shopping channels, catalogs, and the Internet shopping mall.  CJ ENM operates cable television business through a subsidiary.

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Accounting for all the adjustments needed in EV (and EBITDA) in constructing a fair value for Softbank Corp means one should use forward PER. In...

Travis Lundy

A Supermarket Clothing Revival in Japan?

GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Michael Causton

Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes for the NKY in September with sector balance determining the inclusions. Fast Retailing will be capped while Tokyo...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A Belated Look Back at Our 2020 and 2021 Conviction Calls and a Look Ahead to 2022

We take a look back at our conviction calls from 2020 and 2021 to assess performance and put the strong start to our 2022 names in context.

Mio Kato

Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Accounting for all the adjustments needed in EV (and EBITDA) in constructing a fair value for Softbank Corp means one should use forward PER. In...

Travis Lundy

A Supermarket Clothing Revival in Japan?

​GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Michael Causton

Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

​Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes for the NKY in September with sector balance determining the inclusions. Fast Retailing will be capped while Tokyo...

Brian Freitas

GMS chains and supermarkets are reviving their clothing sections, potentially creating new opportunities for higher margins at GMS operations.

Yutori, Zozo's online fashion mall, expands into cosmetics and other items, targeting the youth market. It is Zozo 20 years ago but with Zozo's...