Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Z Holdings posted Q2 20 results that were modestly ahead of consensus but its first pass at full-year guidance fell well short of analyst expectations. The difference is renewed investment to leverage solid H1 growth in eCommerce/fintech users. That makes sense but it is harder to justify a 57% YTD run in the shares with FY20 operating income growth of only 5%. Operationally, some moderation in merchandise eCommerce and sluggish ad sales was more than offset by a massive rebound in online travel and continued momentum for cashless payments.  </strong></p>

Z Holdings posted Q2 20 results that were modestly ahead of consensus but its first pass at full-year guidance fell well short of analyst expectations. The difference is renewed investment to leverage solid H1 growth in eCommerce/fintech users. That makes sense but it is harder to justify a 57% YTD run in the shares with FY20 operating income growth of only 5%. Operationally, some moderation in merchandise eCommerce and sluggish ad sales was more than offset by a massive rebound in online travel and continued momentum for cashless payments.  

Z Holdings - Q2 20 Results: Travel Business Amazes but Guidance May Be Less Appealing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zozo-nice-results-but-it-s-just-a-covid-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41718" rel="noopener">Zozo – Nice Results but It’s Just a COVID Bump</a>, we suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>'s strong 1Q results could be a temporary bump due to the stay-at-home demand, and the company could quickly return to its decelerating growth post-lockdowns. ZOZO's 2Q results show early signs of this happening and we expect a correction over the next few quarters as the impact of the stay-at-home demand further subsides and potentially weak winter sales are booked.</p>

In our previous note, Zozo – Nice Results but It’s Just a COVID Bump, we suggested that ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)'s strong 1Q results could be a temporary bump due to the stay-at-home demand, and the company could quickly return to its decelerating growth post-lockdowns. ZOZO's 2Q results show early signs of this happening and we expect a correction over the next few quarters as the impact of the stay-at-home demand further subsides and potentially weak winter sales are booked.

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>Another case of hubris in Japanese e-commerce? Shoplist operator, Crooz, made a big splash about its plans to build wa ¥100 billion fashion platform three years ago but made a thumping loss in 2018 and then sales actually fell last year, proving just how hard it is for smaller e-commerce platforms to shine in the shadow of the big three.</p>

Another case of hubris in Japanese e-commerce? Shoplist operator, Crooz, made a big splash about its plans to build wa ¥100 billion fashion platform three years ago but made a thumping loss in 2018 and then sales actually fell last year, proving just how hard it is for smaller e-commerce platforms to shine in the shadow of the big three.

<div>
<p>As reported previously, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)'s</a> new plan to create a direct-to-consumer (DtoC) e-commerce platform, and fund the brands sold on it, is much more than just a major fashion retailer piling into the latest trend of exploiting social media influencer followships.</p>
<p>Given the control Zozo will have over the brands, it is, in effect, revisiting its old ambition to launch private brands.</p>
</div><div>
<p>Zozo has now launched 18 of these new brands, all targeting diverse segments with a social influencer or other talent fronting the brand. The model being used is just like a music company promoting diverse musicians and bands, with Zozo very much in control, and could transform Zozo's private brand programme.</p>
<p>Zozo also continues to widen the number of categories sold on Zozo.</p>
</div>


As reported previously, ZOZO (3092 JP)'s new plan to create a direct-to-consumer (DtoC) e-commerce platform, and fund the brands sold on it, is much more than just a major fashion retailer piling into the latest trend of exploiting social media influencer followships.
Given the control Zozo will have over the brands, it is, in effect, revisiting its old ambition to launch private brands.

Zozo has now launched 18 of these new brands, all targeting diverse segments with a social influencer or other talent fronting the brand. The model being used is just like a music company promoting diverse musicians and bands, with Zozo very much in control, and could transform Zozo's private brand programme.
Zozo also continues to widen the number of categories sold on Zozo.


ZOZO Launches 18 New Brands, Adds Golf Section

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.</p>

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

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ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Z Holdings - Q2 20 Results: Travel Business Amazes but Guidance May Be Less Appealing

Newly issued full-year guidance is well below market expectations and driven by renewed investment to build eCommerce and fintech. That is sensible...

Kirk Boodry

ZOZO: Return to Collapsing Growth

ZOZO's 2Q results show early signs of returning to decelerating growth. We expect a correction over the next few quarters as the impact of the stay...

Supun Walpola

Shoplist Promise Withers on the Web

Crooz promised sales of ¥100 billion within a few years and a long-term target of a ¥1 trillion capitalisation. Its early promise has withered...

Michael Causton

ZOZO Launches 18 New Brands, Adds Golf Section

Zozo failed first time with its own private brand but today launched 18 brands. This time it is developing them with social influencers and other...

Michael Causton

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

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