Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term</li>
<li>Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum</li>
<li>Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price</li>
</ul>


We are convinced container shipping price momentum is waning, medium-term
Not surprisingly, carrier ZIM's share performance correlates to price momentum
Shorting ZIM against Long position in terminal operator isolates sagging price


Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March</li>
<li>In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher</li>
<li>If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in August eased slightly vs July, the first M/M dip since March
In the next two months, seasonality will moderate and Y/Y comps will get tougher
If Q4 momentum wanes, we feel continued strong share performance less likely


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

<ul>
<li>Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022</li>
<li>But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...</li>
<li>We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs</li>
</ul>


Deep-Sea container rates surged in May, yielding best read since June 2022
But volume growth into North American WC ports slowed noticeably...
We believe Q224 results will impress, and still like our Long/Short pairs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

<ul>
<li>Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal</li>
<li>On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue</li>
<li>Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue <em>increased</em> from Q123 to Q423</li>
</ul>


Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal
On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue
Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue increased from Q123 to Q423


Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rates remain depressed but stable, and easier Y/Y comps will arrive in late Summer</li>
<li>Fuel costs should be a tailwind in Q2 results; Danish giant Maersk reports on August 4th</li>
<li>We expect Q2/H1 results to support our view that the worst of the storm has passed</li>
</ul>


Rates remain depressed but stable, and easier Y/Y comps will arrive in late Summer
Fuel costs should be a tailwind in Q2 results; Danish giant Maersk reports on August 4th
We expect Q2/H1 results to support our view that the worst of the storm has passed


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of 'Storm' Passed (July 2023)

Israel

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd provides shipping services. The Company offers multi-modal, cargo handling, tariff management, schedule information, and other related services. ZIM Integrated Shipping Services serves clients worldwide.

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

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ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

Short ZIM Against Long Position in China Merchants Port Hldgs | 2025 High Conviction

We believe container shipping price momentum is waning. Pairing a short position in carrier ZIM against a long position in terminal operator CMPH...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Strong Price Momentum Likely to Moderate in Q4

We believe the strong year-to-date price momentum enjoyed by most container carriers may moderate in Q4, which would make it difficult for some of...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Surged in May | Did Volume Growth Wobble? | (June 2024)

Deep-sea container shipping price momentum surged in May, even though volumes into the North American West Coast slowed. We think this is a head...

Tracking Traffic

Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Spot container rates have surged, and carriers are also benefitting from newly-imposed ancillary charges. It's possible the ongoing conflict in the...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of 'Storm' Passed (July 2023)

Our research tracking container rates and profitability suggests that the worst of the storm has passed, and that we should see easier Y/Y comps...

Tracking Traffic

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