Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average fell so Hs OUTperformed As by 2.1%. Liquid Hs saw their H outperform the A by 3.1% on average.</li>
<li>Last week was the sharpest one-week fall in AH premium in a very long time.  SOUTHBOUND Flows Monitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-southbound-flows-to-23-feb-2024-selling-of-consumer-stocks-but-big-buys-of-soes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. NORTHBOUND Flows Monitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainland-connect-northbound-flows-to-23-feb-2024-foreigners-buy-natl-team-buys-retail-sells" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average fell so Hs OUTperformed As by 2.1%. Liquid Hs saw their H outperform the A by 3.1% on average.
Last week was the sharpest one-week fall in AH premium in a very long time.  SOUTHBOUND Flows Monitor here. NORTHBOUND Flows Monitor here.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024):  Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 10.7bn of A-shares on strong average activity after RMB +16.1bn, +9.9bn and +12.1bn the three weeks before. More National Team buying this week.</li>
<li>Five of the top ten buys among liquid NORTHBOUND stocks were finance. Again. Info Tech saw net selling. Again. People trading long gamma now instead of short gamma.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 10.7bn of A-shares on strong average activity after RMB +16.1bn, +9.9bn and +12.1bn the three weeks before. More National Team buying this week.
Five of the top ten buys among liquid NORTHBOUND stocks were finance. Again. Info Tech saw net selling. Again. People trading long gamma now instead of short gamma.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024): Foreigners Buy, Natl Team Buys; Retail Sells

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.8% as of Feb 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 6.2ppt week-on-week, led by health care, materials, real estate and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zijin Mining, Conch Cement, China Vanke, Air China, Shandong Gold, RemeGen, CICC, Shanghai Junshi.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.8% as of Feb 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by 6.2ppt week-on-week, led by health care, materials, real estate and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zijin Mining, Conch Cement, China Vanke, Air China, Shandong Gold, RemeGen, CICC, Shanghai Junshi.


A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 9th): Zijin Mining, Conch Cement, China Vanke, Air China, Shandong Gold

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 9th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,110.3 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by health care.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, Boe Technology, Wuxi Apptec, Wanhua Chemical, CATL, Foxconn Industrial Internet.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 9th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$2,110.3 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by health care.
We highlight flows for Moutai, Boe Technology, Wuxi Apptec, Wanhua Chemical, CATL, Foxconn Industrial Internet.


Northbound Flows (Feb 9th): Moutai, Boe Technology, Wuxi Apptec, Wanhua Chemical, CATL

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. </li>
<li>In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. 
In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.


Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

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Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

Quiddity AH Monitor. The Quiddity Portfolio +1.49% despite being only 55% net long (52 long H short A, 15 short H long A); Big week in many pairs....

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024): Foreigners Buy, Natl Team Buys; Retail Sells

NORTHBOUND was a net buy 4 weeks in a row (assuming the Chinese New Year and the week after were "1 week"). Felt like an allocation week. Retail...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 9th): Zijin Mining, Conch Cement, China Vanke, Air China, Shandong Gold

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zijin Mining, Conch Cement, China Vanke, Air China, Shandong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Feb 9th): Moutai, Boe Technology, Wuxi Apptec, Wanhua Chemical, CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, Boe Technology, Wuxi Apptec, Wanhua...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

I estimate one-way flow to be US$235mn which translates to a turnover of ~2%. However, these estimates are based on the low-conviction assumption...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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