China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

China released its second quarter GDP and the numbers (like all Chinese data) provide more questions than answers.<div>Despite agreeing to the International Monetary Fund Special Data Dissemination Standards, there remain large discrepancies between the headline data and the industrial level granular data. Detecting the problems requires digging deep beneath the surface.</div>According to official Chinese data real output in the second quarter in the industrial sector grew 6 per cent in real terms and 2.9…

China released its second quarter GDP and the numbers (like all Chinese data) provide more questions than answers.Despite agreeing to the International Monetary Fund Special Data Dissemination Standards, there remain large discrepancies between the headline data and the industrial level granular data. Detecting the problems requires digging deep beneath the surface.According to official Chinese data real output in the second quarter in the industrial sector grew 6 per cent in real terms and 2.9…

Digging Beneath the Surface of Chinese GDP

The last two quarters failed to produce sustained positive growth in the regulated highly leveraged Chinese economy with continued RMB depreciation. Still some sectors such as real estate and the manufacturing showed some promising positive results, implying that the Chinese economy will not face a hard landing.  The ongoing rapid expansion of credit driving activity though remains worrying especially given the stressed finances of Chinese industrials. Since last year PBOC started to diminish…

The last two quarters failed to produce sustained positive growth in the regulated highly leveraged Chinese economy with continued RMB depreciation. Still some sectors such as real estate and the manufacturing showed some promising positive results, implying that the Chinese economy will not face a hard landing.  The ongoing rapid expansion of credit driving activity though remains worrying especially given the stressed finances of Chinese industrials. Since last year PBOC started to diminish…

Chinese Industrial Revenue Up 1% YTD from 2015

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major cities in China suggests fastest pace of inventory clearing for those cities in at least 5 years, driven by strong sales volume growth but also by lower land sales and new starts in several major cities.

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of returning to strong growth. The start of the third quarter can be termed as disappointing as the key industries have also stated to show the effects of broader slowdown.  Key industries linked to real estate that showed a bullish trend in previous months seem to be reverting to uncertainty or non-existent growth. The steel industry of China, which also…

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of returning to strong growth. The start of the third quarter can be termed as disappointing as the key industries have also stated to show the effects of broader slowdown.  Key industries linked to real estate that showed a bullish trend in previous months seem to be reverting to uncertainty or non-existent growth. The steel industry of China, which also…

Early Chinese July Data Shows Economic Activity Slowdown

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid, consistent and detailed city-level data on property markets in China is largely limited to major cities but comparing some key metrics at a national level with those for Tier-1 and Tier-2 can give us a sense of respective share of the market for different categories of cities. While the four Tier-1 cities have a disproportionally higher share of new home…

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

China

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. provides and integrates train-borne electrical systems for the PRC Railway industry.  The Company also develops, manufactures, and sells train power converters, auxiliary power supply equipment and control systems for trains for urban rail systems

Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK)

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Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898 HK)

Digging Beneath the Surface of Chinese GDP

China released its second quarter GDP and the numbers (like all Chinese data) provide more questions than answers.Despite agreeing to the...

Christopher Balding

Chinese Industrial Revenue Up 1% YTD from 2015

The last two quarters failed to produce sustained positive growth in the regulated highly leveraged Chinese economy with continued RMB...

Christopher Balding

China Property: What Oversupply? Assessing Inventory Clearing Situation In Major 13 Cities

For all the macroeconomic concerns about the oversupply of housing in China and government’s push for supply-side reforms, the data on 13 major...

Robert Ciemniak

Early Chinese July Data Shows Economic Activity Slowdown

July Pre PMI ReportAfter a hot start this year the Chinese economy has plateaued and appeared to enter a slow downward trend with no sign of...

Christopher Balding

China Property By Tier - Where Is The Action?

How significant are Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3, and lower-tier cities, respectively, for the overall housing market in China? Reasonably solid,...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)