Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (981 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Li Auto (2015 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), XPeng (9868 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on Tencent (700 HK), HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), NetEase (9999 HK), CNOOC (883 HK) and SMIC (981 HK).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Zhong An will report FY22 results on 21 March (Tue) after market close.</li><li>We expect to see HoH improvement of combined ratio in 2H22 as well as narrowed losses from virtual banking and technology export business.</li><li>Over the weekend, Zhong An issued a profit alert, stating that the company will report a net loss of RMB1.3bn1.5bn for FY22. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zhong An will report FY22 results on 21 March (Tue) after market close.We expect to see HoH improvement of combined ratio in 2H22 as well as narrowed losses from virtual banking and technology export business.Over the weekend, Zhong An issued a profit alert, stating that the company will report a net loss of RMB1.3bn1.5bn for FY22. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ZhongAn (6060 HK) – FY22 preview: 2H22 UW margin improvement

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

<ul><li>The 2023 jumpstart performance YTD of Chinese life insurers are divergent according to our channel check.</li><li>While most insurance companies continued suffering from new business declines given the weaker-than-expected pre-sale performance amid COVID outbreaks in Dec 2022, China Life recorded a decent FYP growth thanks to its early launch of pre-sale since Oct 2022.</li><li>We also note that the NBV momentum of CPIC and Ping An elevated substantially since midJan 2023, driven by: 1) enhanced agent productivity on the back of proactive agency reform and 2) consistent strong demands for savings products. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The 2023 jumpstart performance YTD of Chinese life insurers are divergent according to our channel check.While most insurance companies continued suffering from new business declines given the weaker-than-expected pre-sale performance amid COVID outbreaks in Dec 2022, China Life recorded a decent FYP growth thanks to its early launch of pre-sale since Oct 2022.We also note that the NBV momentum of CPIC and Ping An elevated substantially since midJan 2023, driven by: 1) enhanced agent productivity on the back of proactive agency reform and 2) consistent strong demands for savings products. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Insurance – Divergent jumpstart performance among life insurers

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.</li>
<li>The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.</li>
<li>We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.</li>
</ul>


To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.
The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.
We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.


PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

China

ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co., Ltd. operates as an insurance company. The Company develops and sells health, airline, and automotive insurance, and other products. ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance also offers online consumer finance services.

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ZhongAn Online P&C Insurance C (6060 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (March 2023)

The Hang Seng indices rebalance Friday. Capping uses today's closing prices. The one-way trade across all stocks across the indices is estimated at...

Brian Freitas

ZhongAn (6060 HK) – FY22 preview: 2H22 UW margin improvement

We expect to see HoH improvement of combined ratio in 2H22 as well as narrowed losses from virtual banking and technology export business.

CMB International

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Insurance – Divergent jumpstart performance among life insurers

The 2023 jumpstart performance YTD of Chinese life insurers are divergent according to our channel check.While most insurance companies continued...

CMB International

PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

PICC Group / PICC P&C are an interesting pair that often provides investors with short windows for relative value trades. From the group's SOTP...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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