HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)</a>'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  </li>
<li>It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. </li>
<li>We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  
It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. 
We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: The shadowy businessman behind a multibillion-dollar bank swindle</li><li>Chongqing monkeypox patient caught the disease in Berlin, China CDC says</li><li>Former Shanghai police chief sentenced to life in prison for corruption</li></ul>

In Depth: The shadowy businessman behind a multibillion-dollar bank swindleChongqing monkeypox patient caught the disease in Berlin, China CDC saysFormer Shanghai police chief sentenced to life in prison for corruption

CX Daily: The Shadowy Businessman Behind a Multibillion-Dollar Bank Swindle

<ul>
<li>The Aug China Express Development Index points to further industry recovery; and as the leader with 23% (+2pp YoY) market share, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (2057 HK)</a> should ride on the uptrend. </li>
<li>Sustained volume outperformance, upside on pricing and excellent cost control capability are drivers in 2H22. We are also comfortable with its solid financial position. </li>
<li>ZTO Express has above-average earnings quality and enjoys benefits from industry consolidation. Its on par valuation with the industry makes the stock appealing.</li>
</ul>


The Aug China Express Development Index points to further industry recovery; and as the leader with 23% (+2pp YoY) market share, ZTO Express (2057 HK) should ride on the uptrend. 
Sustained volume outperformance, upside on pricing and excellent cost control capability are drivers in 2H22. We are also comfortable with its solid financial position. 
ZTO Express has above-average earnings quality and enjoys benefits from industry consolidation. Its on par valuation with the industry makes the stock appealing.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​ZTO US): Quality Speaks for Itself

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce.</li>
<li>The market size of Chinese online game continued to shrink in July.</li>
<li>Alibaba’s Ele.me sets up a mini-program on TikTok to fight Meituan.</li>
</ul>


Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce.
The market size of Chinese online game continued to shrink in July.
Alibaba’s Ele.me sets up a mini-program on TikTok to fight Meituan.


China Internet Weekly (22Aug22): E-Commerce, Logistics, Online Game, Food Delivery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)</a> has outperformed industry volume growth in 1Q22 and such trend continues into 2Q22 with good ASP improvement and cost control. </li>
<li>Its strong operating cash flow and declining capex will lead to an accumulation of cash over the next few years, adding to the 1Q22 net cash position of Rmb4.1bn. </li>
<li>We think the stock's underperformance against peers not warranted. With a below-sector earnings multiple, leadership position and successful business model, we consider ZTO a "Growth at a reasonable price".</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK) has outperformed industry volume growth in 1Q22 and such trend continues into 2Q22 with good ASP improvement and cost control. 
Its strong operating cash flow and declining capex will lead to an accumulation of cash over the next few years, adding to the 1Q22 net cash position of Rmb4.1bn. 
We think the stock's underperformance against peers not warranted. With a below-sector earnings multiple, leadership position and successful business model, we consider ZTO a "Growth at a reasonable price".


ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Growth at a Reasonable Price

China

STO Express Co Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets valves, pipe fittings and plumbing equipment. The Company's business encompasses the    development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of plumbing equipment, valves,  pipe fittings, metal construction materials, home automation, environmental protection and energy control systems.

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STO Express (002468 CH)

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: The Shadowy Businessman Behind a Multibillion-Dollar Bank Swindle

In Depth: The shadowy businessman behind a multibillion-dollar bank swindle. Chongqing monkeypox patient caught the disease in Berlin, China CDC says

Caixin Global

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Quality Speaks for Itself

Industry figures suggest express market to continue recover in Aug and ZTO Express is best benefited given its number one position. Upside of ASP...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Internet Weekly (22Aug22): E-Commerce, Logistics, Online Game, Food Delivery

Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce. The market size of Chinese online game continued to...

Ming Lu

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Growth at a Reasonable Price

ZTO Express has outperformed industry volume growth with healthy pricing levels so far into FY22. We anticipate it will continue to add net cash to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CX Daily: The Shadowy Businessman Behind a Multibillion-Dollar Bank Swindle

In Depth: The shadowy businessman behind a multibillion-dollar bank swindle. Chongqing monkeypox patient caught the disease in Berlin, China CDC says

Caixin Global

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​ZTO US): Quality Speaks for Itself

Industry figures suggest express market to continue recover in Aug and ZTO Express is best benefited given its number one position. Upside of ASP...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Internet Weekly (22Aug22): E-Commerce, Logistics, Online Game, Food Delivery

Logistics companies’ revenue grew by over 10%, which reflects the recovery of e-commerce. The market size of Chinese online game continued to...

Ming Lu

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Growth at a Reasonable Price

ZTO Express has outperformed industry volume growth with healthy pricing levels so far into FY22. We anticipate it will continue to add net cash to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Quality Speaks for Itself