Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact</li>
<li>CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook
Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact
CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets


Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or a trend change?</li>
<li>A short-term bounce in the USDJPY will provide an opportunity to reposition</li>
<li>Industrial metals take the brunt of the unwind in the commodity sector</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or a trend change?
A short-term bounce in the USDJPY will provide an opportunity to reposition
Industrial metals take the brunt of the unwind in the commodity sector


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 2

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$418m. There are 17 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-de-minas-buenaventura-saa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27674:1" rel="noopener">Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/equinox-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38705:1" rel="noopener">Equinox Gold (EQX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$418m. There are 17 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The largest inflows are expected in Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN US), Equinox Gold (EQX US) and Red 5 Ltd (RED AU). 


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$400m

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 17th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Longfor, Li Auto, Techtronic Ind.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 17th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Baba, Longfor, Li Auto, Techtronic Ind.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Longfor, Li Auto, Techtronic Ind

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

China

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Ltd. explores, mines, and produces gold.  The Company holds interest in properties in eastern China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zhaojin Mining Industry H (1818 HK)

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 2

In summary, we expect the unwinding of JPY shorts to continue driving more volatility in markets providing opportunities in certain sectors. The...

Rikki Malik

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$400m

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$418m. There are 17 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Longfor, Li Auto, Techtronic Ind

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 17th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Longfor, Li Auto,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

​Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 2

In summary, we expect the unwinding of JPY shorts to continue driving more volatility in markets providing opportunities in certain sectors. The...

Rikki Malik

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$400m

Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$418m. There are 17 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Longfor, Li Auto, Techtronic Ind

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 17th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Longfor, Li Auto,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...