Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>USD setting up for a fresh rise in EM that will spill over into Asian FX and front run a risk cycle peak for equities in mid-December.</li>
<li>DXY drift sets up a fresh buy. Euro triangle breakout points in focus as well as Sterling's bull wedge.</li>
<li>USD versus ZAR, MXN and RUB near key rally supports. INR, SGD and THB favored USD long plays in Asia.</li>
</ul>


USD setting up for a fresh rise in EM that will spill over into Asian FX and front run a risk cycle peak for equities in mid-December.
DXY drift sets up a fresh buy. Euro triangle breakout points in focus as well as Sterling's bull wedge.
USD versus ZAR, MXN and RUB near key rally supports. INR, SGD and THB favored USD long plays in Asia.


USD/EM Rise to Bleed into Asian FX Ahead of a Risk Turn

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Since the start of the pandemic, the Brazilian real (BRL) has lagged the broad universe of emerging market currencies but it has outperformed this year, narrowing the gap.</li>
<li>I expect BRL to continue outperforming as real rates should keep rising, the fiscal balance has improved, and there is a potential for a positive surprise on the election front.</li>
<li>The positive view on BRL is against other EM currencies, not the dollar. Also, the timing is critical because asset volatility should start picking up as the election approaches.</li>
</ul>


Since the start of the pandemic, the Brazilian real (BRL) has lagged the broad universe of emerging market currencies but it has outperformed this year, narrowing the gap.
I expect BRL to continue outperforming as real rates should keep rising, the fiscal balance has improved, and there is a potential for a positive surprise on the election front.
The positive view on BRL is against other EM currencies, not the dollar. Also, the timing is critical because asset volatility should start picking up as the election approaches.


Brazilian Real Set to Outperform Other EM Currencies in the Near Term

<ul>
<li>The volatility of the US dollar has risen sharply in recent weeks with the dollar appreciating strongly starting in early November but coming off the highs on the Omicron variant.</li>
<li>I expect the dollar's volatility to stay high whether the Omicron variant turns out to be as big a threat to the economic recovery as feared or not.</li>
<li>For EM currencies, the environment is therefore likely to be less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro and consider beta-neutral relative-value trades.</li>
</ul>


The volatility of the US dollar has risen sharply in recent weeks with the dollar appreciating strongly starting in early November but coming off the highs on the Omicron variant.
I expect the dollar's volatility to stay high whether the Omicron variant turns out to be as big a threat to the economic recovery as feared or not.
For EM currencies, the environment is therefore likely to be less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro and consider beta-neutral relative-value trades.


Implications of Higher Dollar Volatility for EM Currencies

<ul>
<li>Chile's political polarization was apparent in Sunday's general elections where the two leading candidates for the presidency who are headed for a run-off election are leftist and ultra-conservative. </li>
<li>The markets reacted positively to the elections in which right-wing parties performed well, which allowed me to recommend taking profits on a long Chilean peso vs South African rand trade.</li>
<li>While there is room for the peso to continue to outperform, I recommend closing the trade for now as I anticipate market volatility to pick up again.</li>
</ul>


Chile's political polarization was apparent in Sunday's general elections where the two leading candidates for the presidency who are headed for a run-off election are leftist and ultra-conservative. 
The markets reacted positively to the elections in which right-wing parties performed well, which allowed me to recommend taking profits on a long Chilean peso vs South African rand trade.
While there is room for the peso to continue to outperform, I recommend closing the trade for now as I anticipate market volatility to pick up again.


Chile’s Market-Friendly Election Outcome Allows Exit from Trade Recommendation

<ul>
<li>In my monthly recap note , I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates</li>
<li>Of the total of 27 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 18 of which 15 were in the money.</li>
<li>I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.</li>
</ul>


In my monthly recap note , I provide a performance update of my weekly trade recommendations in emerging markets FX and rates
Of the total of 27 trade recommendations made so far, I have recommended closing 18 of which 15 were in the money.
I also go over my open trade recommendations as well as those that I have closed recently.


Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – November 2021

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

Price Gauge
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ZAR (USDZAR CURNCY)

USD/EM Rise to Bleed into Asian FX Ahead of a Risk Turn

USD setting up for a fresh rise in EM that will spill over into Asian FX and front run a risk cycle peak for equities in mid-December.

Thomas Schroeder

Brazilian Real Set to Outperform Other EM Currencies in the Near Term

I expect BRL to continue outperforming in the near term as real rates should keep rising, the fiscal balance has improved, and there is a potential...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Implications of Higher Dollar Volatility for EM Currencies

With the US dollar volatility rising, the environment for EM currencies has turned less supportive and it's best to hedge exposures with the euro...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Chile’s Market-Friendly Election Outcome Allows Exit from Trade Recommendation

The markets reacted positively to Chile's elections in which right-wing parties performed well, which allowed me to recommend taking profits on a...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – November 2021

I provide a performance update of all my trade recommendations along with discussing the open trades. I have recommended closing 18 of the 27...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)