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Olivier Desbarres

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4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates(NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the<a href="https://www.bis.org/statistics/eer.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> BIS</a> (April 2019) and national central banks (see <a href="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/948838a86ce72ab6d8019a39d/files/15f4d8a9-56a4-46fd-9d78-607e5fd523e6/4X_Global_Research_Nominal_Effective_Exchange_Rates_Monthly_seasonal_patterns.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns</a>, 10 January 2019). A number of factors can drive currency seasonality, including underlying seasonal patterns in balance of payment flows, the timing of public holidays and market liquidity. However, significant changes in central bank or government policy, major domestic events (e.g. Brexit) and once-in-a-lifetime “black swan” events such as the Covid-19 pandemic January can break down even well established seasonal currency patterns. In emerging Asia interventionist central banks have in part eroded monthly currency seasonality.Unsurprisingly, typical monthly seasonal currency patterns broke down in 2020, with a few exceptions. In particular, when global risk sentiment collapsed in March and peaked in June only a handful of currencies moved broadly in line with their historical patterns. Historical seasonal patterns somewhat re-established themselves in Q3 (notably August) with domestic factors once again driving asset prices, including currencies. But the resurgence in Covid-19 cases and deaths in Q4 along with the re-imposition of national lockdowns once again contributed to a breakdown in historical seasonal patterns, albeit not as marked as in March or June.The Brazilian Real and Colombian Peso NEERs recorded the strongest average rates of appreciation in the month of January in 2010-2019, while the Turkish Lira and Russian Rouble were the weakest. About 15 NEERs traded broadly in line with their historical patterns in January 2020.However, the Covid-19 pandemic was still in its infancy and its impact on global economies and financial markets still modest. The risk is that many currencies, including the typically strong Swiss Franc, may in January 2021 continue to deviate materially from their 2010-2019 seasonal patterns in our view.

This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 31 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates(NEERs) going back to January 2010, using over two million daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns, 10 January 2019). A number of factors can drive currency seasonality, including underlying seasonal patterns in balance of payment flows, the timing of public holidays and market liquidity. However, significant changes in central bank or government policy, major domestic events (e.g. Brexit) and once-in-a-lifetime “black swan” events such as the Covid-19 pandemic January can break down even well established seasonal currency patterns. In emerging Asia interventionist central banks have in part eroded monthly currency seasonality.Unsurprisingly, typical monthly seasonal currency patterns broke down in 2020, with a few exceptions. In particular, when global risk sentiment collapsed in March and peaked in June only a handful of currencies moved broadly in line with their historical patterns. Historical seasonal patterns somewhat re-established themselves in Q3 (notably August) with domestic factors once again driving asset prices, including currencies. But the resurgence in Covid-19 cases and deaths in Q4 along with the re-imposition of national lockdowns once again contributed to a breakdown in historical seasonal patterns, albeit not as marked as in March or June.The Brazilian Real and Colombian Peso NEERs recorded the strongest average rates of appreciation in the month of January in 2010-2019, while the Turkish Lira and Russian Rouble were the weakest. About 15 NEERs traded broadly in line with their historical patterns in January 2020.However, the Covid-19 pandemic was still in its infancy and its impact on global economies and financial markets still modest. The risk is that many currencies, including the typically strong Swiss Franc, may in January 2021 continue to deviate materially from their 2010-2019 seasonal patterns in our view.

Monthly Currency Seasonality: Down and Out?

Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly or wrongly, as “emerging”. Price action in 2019 only partially vindicates this approach.News articles about the November EM currency rally and the long list of factors supporting further outperformance next year have been rife.EM currencies, particularly high-yielders, materially outperformed in the fortnight following the US elections thanks in part to a pick-up in portfolio inflows. The prevailing view was/is that a less conflictual Biden presidency will be a net positive for global trade and commodity prices. EM currencies appreciated further following news on 23rd November that the more affordable Astra Zeneca vaccine was up to 90% effective and Trump’s announcement that he would allow the transition of power to President-elect Biden.However, in the past two weeks a GDP-weighted basket of EM currencies (excluding the Chinese Renminbi) has appreciated only 0.9% versus the Dollar and underperformed a basket of developed market currencies (+1.3%). Moreover, high yielding EM currencies (+1.1%) have only marginally outperformed low-yielding EM currencies (+0.7%). Domestic and regional factors over-and-above “global risk appetite” have arguably contributed to the outperformance of Central European and Latam currencies and the more mixed (read subdued) performance of high-yielding EM and Asian currencies. One explanation is that some of these EM currencies are already pricing in a lot of “good” news.The consensus forecast is seemingly that EM currencies will outperform both the Dollar and developed market currencies going forward. The long list of supporting factors includes i) cheap EM valuations, ii) EM currencies’ yield advantage, iii) the benefits to EM of further Dollar depreciation and iv) a rebound in global economic growth. We sympathise with this view, albeit with some important caveats. One is that more interventionist Asian central banks may stop their currencies from fully joining any EM currency party in 2021. Moreover, we would split the next 13 months into three timelines.

Media coverage of Emerging Market currencies tends to oscillate between the very bearish and very bullish, with little differentiation between low and high-yielding currencies or between regional blocks let alone between the dozens of currencies still referred to, rightly or wrongly, as “emerging”. Price action in 2019 only partially vindicates this approach.News articles about the November EM currency rally and the long list of factors supporting further outperformance next year have been rife.EM currencies, particularly high-yielders, materially outperformed in the fortnight following the US elections thanks in part to a pick-up in portfolio inflows. The prevailing view was/is that a less conflictual Biden presidency will be a net positive for global trade and commodity prices. EM currencies appreciated further following news on 23rd November that the more affordable Astra Zeneca vaccine was up to 90% effective and Trump’s announcement that he would allow the transition of power to President-elect Biden.However, in the past two weeks a GDP-weighted basket of EM currencies (excluding the Chinese Renminbi) has appreciated only 0.9% versus the Dollar and underperformed a basket of developed market currencies (+1.3%). Moreover, high yielding EM currencies (+1.1%) have only marginally outperformed low-yielding EM currencies (+0.7%). Domestic and regional factors over-and-above “global risk appetite” have arguably contributed to the outperformance of Central European and Latam currencies and the more mixed (read subdued) performance of high-yielding EM and Asian currencies. One explanation is that some of these EM currencies are already pricing in a lot of “good” news.The consensus forecast is seemingly that EM currencies will outperform both the Dollar and developed market currencies going forward. The long list of supporting factors includes i) cheap EM valuations, ii) EM currencies’ yield advantage, iii) the benefits to EM of further Dollar depreciation and iv) a rebound in global economic growth. We sympathise with this view, albeit with some important caveats. One is that more interventionist Asian central banks may stop their currencies from fully joining any EM currency party in 2021. Moreover, we would split the next 13 months into three timelines.

Emerging Market Currencies: Hopes and Realities

Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Central and Latin America.However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants finding their feet, in our view. Rather it is a reflexion of greater global risk aversion, with financial markets unable to see through the smoke and reluctant to pit themselves against their peers and test monetary authorities’ resolve at a time of still acute uncertainty on many levels.

Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Central and Latin America.However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants finding their feet, in our view. Rather it is a reflexion of greater global risk aversion, with financial markets unable to see through the smoke and reluctant to pit themselves against their peers and test monetary authorities’ resolve at a time of still acute uncertainty on many levels.

Risk Aversion, Not Panic, in Face of Uncertainty

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chart pivots are aligning for a risk inflection this week as gold builds energy for a break higher out of bullish congestion as long as 1,650 support holds. USD support levels are flashing buy signals as we move into a trend turn cycle timeline in Mid-May. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has been a macro bullish theme in our work from May 2019 and more recently from 1,450. Bullish triangles are typically continuation patterns. Gold's congestion from early April is forming a bullish flat as long as we don't close below 1,650.Similar bullish triangle patterns have formed in USD/ZAR and USD/MXN that set the stage for dollar gains in EM and Asia.Asian equities are nudging up against macro resistance levels in Taiwan, Singapore and the HSI with the Nikkei also pushing on that 20,600 rejection barrier.

Chart pivots are aligning for a risk inflection this week as gold builds energy for a break higher out of bullish congestion as long as 1,650 support holds. USD support levels are flashing buy signals as we move into a trend turn cycle timeline in Mid-May. Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been a macro bullish theme in our work from May 2019 and more recently from 1,450. Bullish triangles are typically continuation patterns. Gold's congestion from early April is forming a bullish flat as long as we don't close below 1,650.Similar bullish triangle patterns have formed in USD/ZAR and USD/MXN that set the stage for dollar gains in EM and Asia.Asian equities are nudging up against macro resistance levels in Taiwan, Singapore and the HSI with the Nikkei also pushing on that 20,600 rejection barrier.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mxn" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24229:1">MXN (USDMXN CURNCY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zar" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24169:1">Zar (USDZAR CURNCY)</a> bull triangles are maturing to a point where an upside breakout is due that would induce high momentum rally in the USD, leading the dollar higher in Asia and weighing on an already fragile Asian equity cycle that is just backing off of key resistance peaks.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sgd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22827:1">SGD (USDSGD CURNCY)</a> exhibits a bull wedge gearing up for a break higher as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krw" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22828:1">KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)</a> has chiseled out triple lows at 1,206 support.An explosive move higher in the USD aligns with our risk off cycle for assets from mid-May into the later part of June.This is a continuation of our dollar bull cycle call from January 2020 and telegraphs another painful cycle for EM and Asian equities. EEM chart illustrates the turn lower from intermediate resistance. A break below EEM 32 would re test the lows on the back of a USD power move.

MXN (USDMXN CURNCY) and Zar (USDZAR CURNCY) bull triangles are maturing to a point where an upside breakout is due that would induce high momentum rally in the USD, leading the dollar higher in Asia and weighing on an already fragile Asian equity cycle that is just backing off of key resistance peaks.SGD (USDSGD CURNCY) exhibits a bull wedge gearing up for a break higher as the KRW (USDKRW CURNCY) has chiseled out triple lows at 1,206 support.An explosive move higher in the USD aligns with our risk off cycle for assets from mid-May into the later part of June.This is a continuation of our dollar bull cycle call from January 2020 and telegraphs another painful cycle for EM and Asian equities. EEM chart illustrates the turn lower from intermediate resistance. A break below EEM 32 would re test the lows on the back of a USD power move.

USD Geared for Rally in EM/Asia Warns of Equity Cycle Inflection

South Africa

The South African rand is the official currency of The Republic of South Africa.

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ZAR (USDZAR CURNCY)

Monthly Currency Seasonality: Down and Out?

Covid-19 pandemic and national lockdowns in 2020 wreaked havoc with historical monthly seasonal patterns for developed and EM currencies. But what...

Olivier Desbarres

Emerging Market Currencies: Hopes and Realities

EM currencies appreciated vs USD and outperformed in fortnight following US elections but since then performance more differentiated. Consensus is...

Olivier Desbarres

Risk Aversion, Not Panic, in Face of Uncertainty

Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited...

Olivier Desbarres

Gold and Dollar Risk Inflection

Chart pivots are aligning for a risk inflection this week as gold builds energy for a break higher out of bullish congestion as long as 1,650...

Thomas Schroeder

USD Geared for Rally in EM/Asia Warns of Equity Cycle Inflection

MXN (USDMXN CURNCY) and Zar (USDZAR CURNCY) bull triangles are maturing to a point where an upside breakout is due that would induce high momentum...

Thomas Schroeder

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