Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GTVs for Yahoo’s shopping division fell by 8% in 1Q2023. </li>
<li>Although this was expected and gross profits did improve, the downturn reflects deeper concerns.</li>
<li>Even the group’s Zozo fashion platform are much more slowly.</li>
</ul>


GTVs for Yahoo’s shopping division fell by 8% in 1Q2023. 
Although this was expected and gross profits did improve, the downturn reflects deeper concerns.
Even the group’s Zozo fashion platform are much more slowly.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  SPX -0.6% as Tech leads Tuesday's decline; Inflation concerns continue to weigh; UAW vs Detroit Big 3 discussion continue - strike deadline draws close; Fund managers avoid China. </li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day - changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX engine issue shocks Japanese partners;  Street upgrade Galore !</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Reports are that SoftBank is Explores New York Listing for PayPay Amid Rising Tech Valuations. With ARM (effectively) done and dusted, Softie likely turns to a PayPay listing</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  SPX -0.6% as Tech leads Tuesday's decline; Inflation concerns continue to weigh; UAW vs Detroit Big 3 discussion continue - strike deadline draws close; Fund managers avoid China. 
JAPAN:  NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day - changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX engine issue shocks Japanese partners;  Street upgrade Galore !
JAPAN X: Reports are that SoftBank is Explores New York Listing for PayPay Amid Rising Tech Valuations. With ARM (effectively) done and dusted, Softie likely turns to a PayPay listing


Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank's ARM Done(Almost), PayPay IPO Next?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NTT reports a Q1 which looks like KDDI where the business looks like KDDI and a bit better than that where it doesn't. Good. Not great. </li>
<li>But NTT announced a ¥200bn buyback. Again good. Not great. </li>
<li>And on Sunday, LDP politician Amari spoke on a Sunday news show about the possible govt selldown of NTT shares. 20yrs is a long time. So no overhang.</li>
</ul>


NTT reports a Q1 which looks like KDDI where the business looks like KDDI and a bit better than that where it doesn't. Good. Not great. 
But NTT announced a ¥200bn buyback. Again good. Not great. 
And on Sunday, LDP politician Amari spoke on a Sunday news show about the possible govt selldown of NTT shares. 20yrs is a long time. So no overhang.


China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>ZHD reported F1Q/C2Q23 top-line, non-GAAP operating profit and non-GAAP net profit in-line, in-line and (32%) vs. consensus, respectively. Earnings miss was driven by wider tax expense.  </li>
<li>ZHD’s B2C e-commerce platform GMV continued to decline, which we suspect is due to the continued impact of STAT, especially Shein.</li>
<li>We maintain SELL and raise TP to JPY 340 due to improved ads-spending, but we expect the transient ad spend increase to be offset by loss of ecommerce customers. </li>
</ul>


ZHD reported F1Q/C2Q23 top-line, non-GAAP operating profit and non-GAAP net profit in-line, in-line and (32%) vs. consensus, respectively. Earnings miss was driven by wider tax expense.  
ZHD’s B2C e-commerce platform GMV continued to decline, which we suspect is due to the continued impact of STAT, especially Shein.
We maintain SELL and raise TP to JPY 340 due to improved ads-spending, but we expect the transient ad spend increase to be offset by loss of ecommerce customers. 


[Z Holdings (4689 JP, SELL, TP JPY 340) Target Price Change]: Continued Impact of Chinese E-Commerce

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Ongoing Focus on Rising Yields As Equities fall(again); US10Yr hits 4.19% as US Gov ramps up borrowing; China continues to shore up Economy; Resilient Apple, Amazon Earnings. </li>
<li>JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield rise; Nikkei sheds 1200 points in 2 days in risk off - still+23%YTD. </li>
<li>NUGGET.  Another sign that Japanese investors are not standing still as domestic inflation takes hold - Record purchases of high-yielding (+high risk!) currencies in the first half of the year.  </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Ongoing Focus on Rising Yields As Equities fall(again); US10Yr hits 4.19% as US Gov ramps up borrowing; China continues to shore up Economy; Resilient Apple, Amazon Earnings. 
JAPAN. Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield rise; Nikkei sheds 1200 points in 2 days in risk off - still+23%YTD. 
NUGGET.  Another sign that Japanese investors are not standing still as domestic inflation takes hold - Record purchases of high-yielding (+high risk!) currencies in the first half of the year.  


Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game - Japanese Investors on the Hunt

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Yahoo Troubles Continue for Z Holdings

Yahoo's shopping division experienced an 8% decrease in GTVs in 1Q2023, indicating deeper concerns despite improved gross profits. Even the Zozo...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank's ARM Done(Almost), PayPay IPO Next?

SPX declines lead by Tech; JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day - changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX...

Mark Chadwick

Amari Ni Mo... NTT (9432)

NTT's Q1 is OK, but not fantastic. "In line". But they announced a buyback, and LDP pol Amari's comments Sunday tell you there are more buybacks...

Travis Lundy

[Z Holdings (4689 JP, SELL, TP JPY 340) Target Price Change]: Continued Impact of Chinese E-Commerce

We maintain SELL and raise TP to JPY 340 due to improved ads-spending, but we expect the transient ad spend increase to be offset by loss of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game - Japanese Investors on the Hunt

US Yields higher; SPX500 falls again; Apple, Amazon beat; Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yahoo Troubles Continue for Z Holdings

​Yahoo's shopping division experienced an 8% decrease in GTVs in 1Q2023, indicating deeper concerns despite improved gross profits. Even the Zozo...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan: Tech Leads US Equity Decline; JAPAN X: Softbank's ARM Done(Almost), PayPay IPO Next?

SPX declines lead by Tech; JAPAN: NKY Futs -0.6% Disc vs Cash; USDJPY 1471; Cabinet reshuffle day - changes in Defense and Foreign Affairs; GTX...

Mark Chadwick

Amari Ni Mo... NTT (9432)

NTT's Q1 is OK, but not fantastic. "In line". But they announced a buyback, and LDP pol Amari's comments Sunday tell you there are more buybacks...

Travis Lundy

[Z Holdings (4689 JP, SELL, TP JPY 340) Target Price Change]: Continued Impact of Chinese E-Commerce

We maintain SELL and raise TP to JPY 340 due to improved ads-spending, but we expect the transient ad spend increase to be offset by loss of...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ohayo Japan| Reality Check from Higher Yields; NUGGET: Yield Game - Japanese Investors on the Hunt

US Yields higher; SPX500 falls again; Apple, Amazon beat; Nikkei Futures -0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY 142.5; BOJ Emergency Bond Buying to slow rapid yield...

Mark Chadwick

Yahoo's shopping division experienced an 8% decrease in GTVs in 1Q2023, indicating deeper concerns despite improved gross profits. Even the Zozo...