Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Rakuten is playing catch up with Amazon in logistics and this is the primary driver behind its new collaboration with Japan Post.
The two companies will set up a new joint business in July to cover the country in new, efficient fulfilment centres. 
As a result, Rakuten will be able to save substantially on capital investment in its own logistics network, particularly the most expensive part of that: the last mile network Rakuten Express, which will now be cancelled in favour of partner services centred on Japan Post.
This will allow Rakuten to focus logistics investment on full coverage at the national level.
Rakuten is growing faster than Z Holding's in e-commerce, including in 1Q2021 and looks set to continue to do so, with the new logistics platform a key part of this, ensuring consumers receive the kind of fulfilment speed and consistency normally only associated with Amazon Japan.

Rakuten is playing catch up with Amazon in logistics and this is the primary driver behind its new collaboration with Japan Post.
The two companies will set up a new joint business in July to cover the country in new, efficient fulfilment centres. 
As a result, Rakuten will be able to save substantially on capital investment in its own logistics network, particularly the most expensive part of that: the last mile network Rakuten Express, which will now be cancelled in favour of partner services centred on Japan Post.
This will allow Rakuten to focus logistics investment on full coverage at the national level.
Rakuten is growing faster than Z Holding's in e-commerce, including in 1Q2021 and looks set to continue to do so, with the new logistics platform a key part of this, ensuring consumers receive the kind of fulfilment speed and consistency normally only associated with Amazon Japan.

Rakuten Ramps up Logistics to Increase Lead in E-Commerce

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> announced in-line results, decent forecasts, yet another dividend hike (20 consecutive years of dividend hikes), and in something of a surprise, a big buyback. Smartkarma's resident expert Japan telecoms analyst <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kirk-boodry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1920" rel="noopener">Kirk Boodry</a> discussed the results and the breakdown of KDDI's results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kddi-q4-20-results-slightly-better-guidance-and-solid-shareholder-returns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51467" rel="noopener">KDDI Q4 20 Results: Slightly Better Guidance and Solid Shareholder Returns</a> Friday night. The very sharp move in the share price Friday appears to have anticipated the slight "surprise" to earnings and the forecast. I personally note that the strength in KDDI earnings in the corporate segment will face increasing competition as NTT gets its act together. More below.

KDDI Corp (9433 JP) announced in-line results, decent forecasts, yet another dividend hike (20 consecutive years of dividend hikes), and in something of a surprise, a big buyback. Smartkarma's resident expert Japan telecoms analyst Kirk Boodry discussed the results and the breakdown of KDDI's results in KDDI Q4 20 Results: Slightly Better Guidance and Solid Shareholder Returns Friday night. The very sharp move in the share price Friday appears to have anticipated the slight "surprise" to earnings and the forecast. I personally note that the strength in KDDI earnings in the corporate segment will face increasing competition as NTT gets its act together. More below.

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Rakuten posted Q1 results ahead of Redex forecasts flattered by ¥30bn in one-time investment gains but otherwise in-line. We see two clear takeaways from the quarter: 1) eCommerce GMV growth moderated after a punchy Q4 outpaced Z Holdings for a second consecutive quarter; and 2) mobile operating losses have accelerated as the company ramps up investment in infrastructure and customer acquisition. Strategically, Rakuten made great progress in the quarter with new equity and debt funding and approval from Apple to sell the iPhone. That makes us more optimistic on hopes for mobile but operating losses come first and we think the company is fairly valued in the near-term.

Rakuten posted Q1 results ahead of Redex forecasts flattered by ¥30bn in one-time investment gains but otherwise in-line. We see two clear takeaways from the quarter: 1) eCommerce GMV growth moderated after a punchy Q4 outpaced Z Holdings for a second consecutive quarter; and 2) mobile operating losses have accelerated as the company ramps up investment in infrastructure and customer acquisition. Strategically, Rakuten made great progress in the quarter with new equity and debt funding and approval from Apple to sell the iPhone. That makes us more optimistic on hopes for mobile but operating losses come first and we think the company is fairly valued in the near-term.

Rakuten Group: Q1 21 Results - Profit Beat on One-Time Gains/Mobile Investment Accelerates

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>  had a great 2020, boosted in part by consumers’ buying online in the pandemic but also because of longer-term strategic changes to its business – and its new collaborative engagement with its majority shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>. While there may be a short-term correction once consumers return to stores, Zozo’s current operations and its future plans are so much stronger and more viable than two years ago that it is likely to emerge as a contender to be 2nd in apparel rankings behind Uniqlo.OPM should also improve on the back of category expansion into high ticket items such as luxury and designer brands.Zozo is also working on a plan to create new sources of profit that don’t rely on ever-growing GTVs, with a target of hitting ¥100 billion in operating profit in the next few years. The three areas where Zozo expects to find new revenues are in:<ol>
<li>Increasing traffic for non-shopping activities </li>
<li>Expanding its role in design and production through private/D2C brands, and </li>
<li>Selling technology licenses overseas.</li>
</ol>Zozo's renewed strategic direction and controlled management should deliver a smoother and more consistent progress than in recent years.

ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)  had a great 2020, boosted in part by consumers’ buying online in the pandemic but also because of longer-term strategic changes to its business – and its new collaborative engagement with its majority shareholder, Z Holdings (4689 JP). While there may be a short-term correction once consumers return to stores, Zozo’s current operations and its future plans are so much stronger and more viable than two years ago that it is likely to emerge as a contender to be 2nd in apparel rankings behind Uniqlo.OPM should also improve on the back of category expansion into high ticket items such as luxury and designer brands.Zozo is also working on a plan to create new sources of profit that don’t rely on ever-growing GTVs, with a target of hitting ¥100 billion in operating profit in the next few years. The three areas where Zozo expects to find new revenues are in:
Increasing traffic for non-shopping activities 
Expanding its role in design and production through private/D2C brands, and 
Selling technology licenses overseas.
Zozo's renewed strategic direction and controlled management should deliver a smoother and more consistent progress than in recent years.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>  posted results for Q4 ahead of Redex / consensus expectations with FY21 guidance that is better than our forecasts but worse than consensus. Importantly, the company is targeting flat operating income YoY despite meaningful mobile price reductions as profit growth from Enterprise sales, Distribution, and Internet offset consumer erosion. The only disappointment in the results may be an unchanged dividend and whilst the company did not close the door on increases later in the year, there was not much enthusiasm either. Still, with results and guidance that are largely better than our expectations, we remain at Buy.

Softbank Corp (9434 JP)  posted results for Q4 ahead of Redex / consensus expectations with FY21 guidance that is better than our forecasts but worse than consensus. Importantly, the company is targeting flat operating income YoY despite meaningful mobile price reductions as profit growth from Enterprise sales, Distribution, and Internet offset consumer erosion. The only disappointment in the results may be an unchanged dividend and whilst the company did not close the door on increases later in the year, there was not much enthusiasm either. Still, with results and guidance that are largely better than our expectations, we remain at Buy. 

Softbank Corp Q4 20 Results/FY21 Guidance – Holding the Line on Mobile Pricing Changes

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Rakuten Ramps up Logistics to Increase Lead in E-Commerce

Rakuten's lead in e-commerce is strengthening against Z Holdings and its deal with Japan Post will ensure it is far, far ahead on fulfilment...

Michael Causton

KDDI Results and Yet Another Buyback

KDDI announced in-line earnings, better forecast, and a big buyback, in line with previous years. The company should be buying about 7% of ADV and...

Travis Lundy

Rakuten Group: Q1 21 Results - Profit Beat on One-Time Gains/Mobile Investment Accelerates

Rakuten Q1 results were in line with expectations outside one-time gains that flattered profitability. Operationally, eCommerce looks good and...

Kirk Boodry

Zozo: Record Sales and a Future Plan

Zozo has turned the corner on the upsets around the time of the founder's exit with clear signs of management stability and strategic, long-term...

Michael Causton

Softbank Corp Q4 20 Results/FY21 Guidance – Holding the Line on Mobile Pricing Changes

Softbank Corp says it will maintain profitability despite regulatory-driven mobile price cuts. The dividend will also be unchanged although...

Kirk Boodry

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