Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The near-term Supply/Demand Balance is helped or hurt - depending on how well the deal has been placed to retail, by overseas bank turmoil. </li>
<li>Quality of placement to retail is tough to know from outside. We have near-term offsets with both index demand and dividend looming.</li>
<li>The biggest near-term differentiator in possible supply/demand outcomes is, of course, in the hands of the TSE Index team. And we just don't know.</li>
</ul>


The near-term Supply/Demand Balance is helped or hurt - depending on how well the deal has been placed to retail, by overseas bank turmoil. 
Quality of placement to retail is tough to know from outside. We have near-term offsets with both index demand and dividend looming.
The biggest near-term differentiator in possible supply/demand outcomes is, of course, in the hands of the TSE Index team. And we just don't know.


Japan Post Bank (7182) - The Flow Calendar

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After stellar growth in 2020, the e-commerce market grew much slower in 2021 but still outpaced all other channels and set the second highest increase in four years.</li>
<li>At this rate, by 2025 e-commerce should become the largest retail channel, overtaking chain stores.</li>
<li>Japan’s easy access to retail stores means shops aren’t about to disappear anytime soon and Japan will become a model for omnichannel retailing with stores still playing a key role.</li>
</ul>


After stellar growth in 2020, the e-commerce market grew much slower in 2021 but still outpaced all other channels and set the second highest increase in four years.
At this rate, by 2025 e-commerce should become the largest retail channel, overtaking chain stores.
Japan’s easy access to retail stores means shops aren’t about to disappear anytime soon and Japan will become a model for omnichannel retailing with stores still playing a key role.


Japanese E-Commerce Big Review: Still Taking Market Share as Omnichannel Becomes the Norm

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX Rise as Cycicals/Tech bid; Higher Rates; Strong USD, No problem !   Market seems to have concluded that higher rates+strong economy is a workable outcome.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 134.1; Weak Yen Narrative to dominate; Do not say to "Mr Yen" who sees 120 ;  BULLISH Inbound but priced in</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. BayCurrent Consulting (6532) - Still lot of tailwinds..still BULLISH.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX Rise as Cycicals/Tech bid; Higher Rates; Strong USD, No problem !   Market seems to have concluded that higher rates+strong economy is a workable outcome.
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 134.1; Weak Yen Narrative to dominate; Do not say to "Mr Yen" who sees 120 ;  BULLISH Inbound but priced in
DAILY NUGGET. BayCurrent Consulting (6532) - Still lot of tailwinds..still BULLISH.


Good Morning Japan |GOLDILOCKS?: Higher Rates, Strong USD=Higher Equities; In JP, Mr Yen Says 120

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ZHD F3Q22 (C4Q22) net revenue slightly missed our est. and cons. by (2%) and (1%). Adjusted EBITDA margin was in line with our est. excluding impact from PayPay consolidation. </li>
<li>PayPay will continue to be the growth driver for ZHD with increase in unit spending supported by premium credit card offering and deepening integration with group’s other services.</li>
<li>We upgrade ZHD to BUY and raise our TP to JPY 435 to reflect beat in profitability and upsides in PayPay</li>
</ul>


ZHD F3Q22 (C4Q22) net revenue slightly missed our est. and cons. by (2%) and (1%). Adjusted EBITDA margin was in line with our est. excluding impact from PayPay consolidation. 
PayPay will continue to be the growth driver for ZHD with increase in unit spending supported by premium credit card offering and deepening integration with group’s other services.
We upgrade ZHD to BUY and raise our TP to JPY 435 to reflect beat in profitability and upsides in PayPay


Z Holdings (4689.JP) Upgrade to BUY: Leaner Business Lines with PayPay Drives Growth

<ul>
<li>Wage pressures continue to build in Japan. The country's largest employer of part-time workers, AEON, is raising wages. Same goes for systems operator, TIS</li>
<li>It has been a disappointing year for shareholders of Z Holdings - perhaps a management change and new round of restructuring will help</li>
<li>Divergent fortunes for SPE names Screen and Lasertec. Suspect this has more to do with short term positioning. The fundamentals are broadly similar</li>
</ul>


Wage pressures continue to build in Japan. The country's largest employer of part-time workers, AEON, is raising wages. Same goes for systems operator, TIS
It has been a disappointing year for shareholders of Z Holdings - perhaps a management change and new round of restructuring will help
Divergent fortunes for SPE names Screen and Lasertec. Suspect this has more to do with short term positioning. The fundamentals are broadly similar


Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

Japan Post Bank (7182) - The Flow Calendar

JPB Flow Calendar showing on a chart and a grid. Two of three major indices are now decided. Now we wait for the TSE to opine. Or not.

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |GOLDILOCKS?: Higher Rates, Strong USD=Higher Equities; In JP, Mr Yen Says 120

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 134.1. Weak yen to dominate today as strong US macro datapoints drive up the USD. A strong US economy...

Mark Chadwick

Z Holdings (4689.JP) Upgrade to BUY: Leaner Business Lines with PayPay Drives Growth

We upgrade ZHD to BUY and raise our TP to JPY 435 to reflect beat in profitability and upsides in PayPay. We expect the group could reach its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

We take a look at the stocks that have been moving the Japanese equity markets over the past week. Z Holdings was the standout performer on restra...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Post Bank (7182) - The Flow Calendar

JPB Flow Calendar showing on a chart and a grid. Two of three major indices are now decided. Now we wait for the TSE to opine. Or not.

Travis Lundy

Japanese E-Commerce Big Review: Still Taking Market Share as Omnichannel Becomes the Norm

Japanese e-commerce continues to take more share from other retail channels but Japan is developing a sophisticated omnichannel model where stores...

Michael Causton

Good Morning Japan |GOLDILOCKS?: Higher Rates, Strong USD=Higher Equities; In JP, Mr Yen Says 120

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 134.1. Weak yen to dominate today as strong US macro datapoints drive up the USD. A strong US economy...

Mark Chadwick

Z Holdings (4689.JP) Upgrade to BUY: Leaner Business Lines with PayPay Drives Growth

We upgrade ZHD to BUY and raise our TP to JPY 435 to reflect beat in profitability and upsides in PayPay. We expect the group could reach its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Japan Weekly | Z Holdings, Money Forward, Screen, Lasertec

We take a look at the stocks that have been moving the Japanese equity markets over the past week. Z Holdings was the standout performer on restra...

Mark Chadwick