Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest data. Volumes growth is slowing down year-to-date year-on-year and declining sequentially, in response to the latest set of policy tightening measures in the city. Our volume-based model would suggest further price deceleration is to be expected, despite still-strong inventory clearing.

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

<ul>
<li>Expensive to renovate a house, need cash.</li>
<li>Time consuming to renovate a house.</li>
<li>No carrying costs except the price of money.</li>
<li>No real estate tax in China.</li>
<li>Unrenovated home is considered new, if renovated second hand. </li>
<li>High cash positions, no loan on a home is common.</li>
<li>Bullish on the real estate market with a necessary market cooling, risk on developers if prices begin to fall.</li>
</ul><h2>*** if you plan to read this report on your desktop please download the PDF version below</h2><h2>Chinese prefer not rent out their</h2>…


Expensive to renovate a house, need cash.
Time consuming to renovate a house.
No carrying costs except the price of money.
No real estate tax in China.
Unrenovated home is considered new, if renovated second hand. 
High cash positions, no loan on a home is common.
Bullish on the real estate market with a necessary market cooling, risk on developers if prices begin to fall.
*** if you plan to read this report on your desktop please download the PDF version belowChinese prefer not rent out their…

Why Do Chinese Leave Their Properties Empty?

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

We at Riedel Research are not China bears and do have never been believers in a 'hard landing' there - however, we have identified an disturbing development in real estate price expectations in China.The monthly MNI consumer sentiment survey asks respondents multiple questions about their outlook for asset prices and their own actions in terms of investing, saving and spending.RRG has developed a series of proprietary indicators from the monthly dataset (back to April 2007) which provide deep…

We at Riedel Research are not China bears and do have never been believers in a 'hard landing' there - however, we have identified an disturbing development in real estate price expectations in China.The monthly MNI consumer sentiment survey asks respondents multiple questions about their outlook for asset prices and their own actions in terms of investing, saving and spending.RRG has developed a series of proprietary indicators from the monthly dataset (back to April 2007) which provide deep…

Outlook for Chinese Real Estate: Maybe at a Tipping Point and Headed for Significant Fall

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth exceeding 30-40% y/y in several key cities is unsustainable.Income multiples now range from the mid-teens to late-20s for the Tier-1 cities, with prime prices at up to $20k per square metre.However, this is distorted by the huge amount of space hoarded as ‘concrete deposit boxes’ by the top 1% of households (who own about 25% of vacant space) and the…

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth exceeding 30-40% y/y in several key cities is unsustainable.Income multiples now range from the mid-teens to late-20s for the Tier-1 cities, with prime prices at up to $20k per square metre.However, this is distorted by the huge amount of space hoarded as ‘concrete deposit boxes’ by the top 1% of households (who own about 25% of vacant space) and the…

China's Housing Boom Overshooting on Land and New Housing Shortage - 28th Oct 2016

In the animated chart below, we visually demonstrate an interesting pattern of house price growth and sales volume growth (in gross floor area terms) for new home sales in China across a few dozen major cities.Using monthly data from January 2012 to August 2016 we show how through the last few cycles, the sales volume growth (12m rolling y/y - on the X axis) tended to lead the price growth y/y (on the Y axis). The latest August data does not reflect the impact of new home purchase restrictions…

In the animated chart below, we visually demonstrate an interesting pattern of house price growth and sales volume growth (in gross floor area terms) for new home sales in China across a few dozen major cities.Using monthly data from January 2012 to August 2016 we show how through the last few cycles, the sales volume growth (12m rolling y/y - on the X axis) tended to lead the price growth y/y (on the Y axis). The latest August data does not reflect the impact of new home purchase restrictions…

China Property Data In Motion: How Sales Volumes Growth Leads House Price Growth: 2012-2016 Cycles

China

Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Limited develops residential properties in southern China.

Price Gauge
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Yuzhou Group (1628 HK)

China Property: The Case Of Shanghai

The housing market in Shanghai (new home sales) is showing signs of slight price growth deceleration from all-time highs, according to the latest...

Robert Ciemniak

Why Do Chinese Leave Their Properties Empty?

Expensive to renovate a house, need cash. Time consuming to renovate a house. No carrying costs except the price of money. No real estate tax in...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Outlook for Chinese Real Estate: Maybe at a Tipping Point and Headed for Significant Fall

We at Riedel Research are not China bears and do have never been believers in a 'hard landing' there - however, we have identified an disturbing...

David Riedel

China's Housing Boom Overshooting on Land and New Housing Shortage - 28th Oct 2016

We've been bullish on Chinese housing since Q2-2015 - rapidly shrinking inventories since then offer fundamental support, although price growth...

Sean Maher

China Property Data In Motion: How Sales Volumes Growth Leads House Price Growth: 2012-2016 Cycles

In the animated chart below, we visually demonstrate an interesting pattern of house price growth and sales volume growth (in gross floor area...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)