Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to see a mixed market, and weak market dynamics lead us to be cautious. One of the primary issues is weak breadth; the large-cap indexes (S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq) remain bullish despite being held up by a relatively small number of mega-cap growth stocks, a condition that can persist for weeks or months. Ultimately, as long as there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level we remain constructive overall.</p>

We continue to see a mixed market, and weak market dynamics lead us to be cautious. One of the primary issues is weak breadth; the large-cap indexes (S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq) remain bullish despite being held up by a relatively small number of mega-cap growth stocks, a condition that can persist for weeks or months. Ultimately, as long as there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautious Overall; Favor Large-Caps & Growth; Key Supports Holding In The U.S.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Devyani International  / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Devyani International Limited (DIL), Yum Brand’s largest franchisor in India, aims to raise around US$200m via its Indian IPO. The IPO will be a mix of primary and secondary shares. </p></div><div><p>DIL operates a chain of quick service restaurants (QSRs) in India. Its core business is to operate KFC, Pizza Hut and Costa Coffee in India. It operated 655 stores across 155 cities in India, as of Mar 2021. These include 264 KFC stores, 297 Pizza Hut stores and 44 Costa Coffee stores. It also operates stores in Nepal and Nigeria for KFC and Pizza Hut. In addition, it also runs its own brands Vaango, Food Street, Masala Twist, Ile Bar, Amreli, and Ckrussh Juice Bar in India. Yum owns over 4% stake in the company.</p></div><p>We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/devyani-pre-ipo-might-not-do-another-burger-king-india-but-should-be-good" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Devyani Pre-IPO - Might not do another Burger King India but should be good</a>.</p><p>In this note we will compare the company against some of its listed peers.</p>

Devyani International Limited (DIL), Yum Brand’s largest franchisor in India, aims to raise around US$200m via its Indian IPO. The IPO will be a mix of primary and secondary shares. DIL operates a chain of quick service restaurants (QSRs) in India. Its core business is to operate KFC, Pizza Hut and Costa Coffee in India. It operated 655 stores across 155 cities in India, as of Mar 2021. These include 264 KFC stores, 297 Pizza Hut stores and 44 Costa Coffee stores. It also operates stores in Nepal and Nigeria for KFC and Pizza Hut. In addition, it also runs its own brands Vaango, Food Street, Masala Twist, Ile Bar, Amreli, and Ckrussh Juice Bar in India. Yum owns over 4% stake in the company.We covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, Devyani Pre-IPO - Might not do another Burger King India but should be good.In this note we will compare the company against some of its listed peers.

Devyani Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Slots in Neatly

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.</p>
<p>Nayuki will commence trading on Wednesday, 30 June. Nayuki priced its IPO at HK$19.80 and the shares <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2993858/%E3%80%90%E5%A5%88%E9%9B%AA%E7%9A%84%E8%8C%B6%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E3%80%91%E5%A5%88%E9%9B%AA%E7%9A%84%E8%8C%B62150%E5%A0%B4%E5%A4%96%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E5%8D%8711-%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%B3%BA1100%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stood 11% higher</a> at HK$22.00 in the grey market.</p>
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<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-initiation-a-new-leaf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48532" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf</a>, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-drinking-habits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52873" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits</a>, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53291" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. We recommended participating at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation.</p>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise and FX, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$19.45 per share. Nevertheless, our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis show that the grey market price is justifiable.  </p></div></div></div>


Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.
Nayuki will commence trading on Wednesday, 30 June. Nayuki priced its IPO at HK$19.80 and the shares stood 11% higher at HK$22.00 in the grey market.

In Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.
In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. We recommended participating at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation.
Updating for the final IPO net raise and FX, our base-case DCF derived price target is HK$19.45 per share. Nevertheless, our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation analysis show that the grey market price is justifiable.  

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nayuki-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32149:1" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK)</a> is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.</p><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$17.20-19.80 per share, Nayuki will have a market cap of HK$29,500.2-33,959.5 million ($3.8-4.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$4,521.3 million ($582 million). </p></div><div>
<p>Five cornerstone investors will purchase $155 million worth of the offer shares (25.25% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International. </p>
<div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-initiation-a-new-leaf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48532" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf</a>, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nayuki-holdings-ipo-drinking-habits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52873" rel="noopener">Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits</a>, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Based on our forecasts, Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. Overall, we are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49 per share.</p></div>
</div>
<p></p>
</div>

Nayuki Holdings (2150 HK) is the second-largest premium teahouse chain in China accounting for 18.9% of China’s premium modern teahouse market as measured by total retail consumption value in 2020, according to CIC.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$17.20-19.80 per share, Nayuki will have a market cap of HK$29,500.2-33,959.5 million ($3.8-4.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$4,521.3 million ($582 million). 
Five cornerstone investors will purchase $155 million worth of the offer shares (25.25% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are UBS Asset Management, China Universal Asset Management, GF Fund, China Southern Asset Management and CCB International. 

In Nayuki Holdings IPO Initiation: A New Leaf, we noted that premium teahouses have rapidly gained popularity in China as they bring new tea-drinking experiences and benefit from the structural trend of consumer’s consumption upgrades driven by higher disposable income. We opined that Nayuki has the right ingredients to offer investors an attractive play on this market. In Nayuki Holdings IPO: Drinking Habits, we noted that recent results (disclosed in the PHIP) show that Nayuki is well-positioned as a post-COVID-19 recovery play.
Based on our forecasts, Nayuki is attractively valued to its peer group for its forecasted earnings growth i.e. on a PEG basis. Overall, we are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49 per share.




Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In this report on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beyond-meat-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28065:1" rel="noopener">Beyond Meat (BYND US)</a>, we discuss (1) potential near term positive stock and sector news flow (2) Beyond's strategic tie-ups with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1425:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Corp (MCD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-brands-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:984:1" rel="noopener">Yum! Brands Inc (YUM US)</a> (3) company's 4Q2020 results and its near and long term operational outlook (4)  and our investment view on the stock.</p><p>During the investor call held yesterday, Beyond's management reiterated their focus on investing for the long term both in terms of improving the product and in expanding capacity despite near term business weakness. Without giving operational details of their preferred supplier relation with Mcdonalds and Yum, Ethan Brown described the deals as 'enormous'; the impact on sales will be meaningful only from 2022.</p>

In this report on Beyond Meat (BYND US), we discuss (1) potential near term positive stock and sector news flow (2) Beyond's strategic tie-ups with Mcdonald's Corp (MCD US) and Yum! Brands Inc (YUM US) (3) company's 4Q2020 results and its near and long term operational outlook (4)  and our investment view on the stock.During the investor call held yesterday, Beyond's management reiterated their focus on investing for the long term both in terms of improving the product and in expanding capacity despite near term business weakness. Without giving operational details of their preferred supplier relation with Mcdonalds and Yum, Ethan Brown described the deals as 'enormous'; the impact on sales will be meaningful only from 2022.

Beyond Meat: Season of News Flow Positives and Quarterly Negatives

United States

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

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Yum! Brands Inc (YUM US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautious Overall; Favor Large-Caps & Growth; Key Supports Holding In The U.S.

The S&P 500 remains bullish, recently hitting our 4400-4406 target as large-caps remain attractive. As long as support at the 50-day MA and 4257...

Vermilion Research

Devyani Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Slots in Neatly

Devyani International Limited (DIL), Yum Brand’s largest franchisor in India, aims to raise around US$200m via its Indian IPO. The IPO will be a...

Sumeet Singh

Nayuki Holdings IPO: Trading Debut

Nayuki priced its IPO at HK$19.80 and the shares stood 11% higher at HK$22.00 in the grey market. Our DCF sensitivity and relative valuation...

Arun George

Nayuki Holdings IPO: Valuation Insights

We are inclined to participate at the low end of the IPO price range due to the decent upside compared to our base-case DCF valuation of HK$19.49...

Arun George

Beyond Meat: Season of News Flow Positives and Quarterly Negatives

Expect positive stock and sector-related newsflow - details on strategic tie-ups and Oatly's big-ticket IPO - to keep the stock upbeat despite...

Devi Subhakesan

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