Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low</li>
<li>Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable</li>
<li>International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars</li>
</ul>


Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

<ul>
<li>December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda</li>
<li>Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December</li>
<li>In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag</li>
</ul>


December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda
Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December
In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

<ul>
<li>Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423</li>
<li>The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex</li>
<li>Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24</li>
</ul>


Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423
The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex
Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24


STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)</li>
<li>700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）</li>
<li>3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)</li>
</ul>


JD/VIPS/1519.HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH/002468 CH: Beijing parcel deliveries impacted by regulations on three-wheel cars (+/+/-)
700 HK: ByteDance in Talks with Tencent on Gaming Business Acquisition and Enhanced Cooperation（+）
3690 HK/ByteDance: Douyin local life is testing “free trial”, accumulating graphic and text content.(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

<ul>
<li>Coffee Industry: Cotti Coffee promote the application of commercial robots, which we deemed as a gimmick (+)</li>
<li>1211 HK/300750 CH/ QS:US solid start battery startup posted positive test result and stock rose 40% (/)</li>
<li>2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH/1519 HK/002120 CH/002468 CH: MOT announces new regulations on express parcel delivery (+/+/-/-/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


Coffee Industry: Cotti Coffee promote the application of commercial robots, which we deemed as a gimmick (+)
1211 HK/300750 CH/ QS:US solid start battery startup posted positive test result and stock rose 40% (/)
2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH/1519 HK/002120 CH/002468 CH: MOT announces new regulations on express parcel delivery (+/+/-/-/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/0000625 CH/1211 HK/300750 CH/QS/NIO/LI/2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

YTO Express (600233 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Industry volume growth remains firm, but price pressure on domestic 'sort and transport' companies continued to increase in December. We expect SF...

Tracking Traffic

STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Plummeting prices and already-low profitability could force second-tier Chinese express names STO and Yunda to be part of industry consolidation in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/0000625 CH/1211 HK/300750 CH/QS/NIO/LI/2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH

Cotti promotion of commercial robots in the coffee industry. A battery startup had a positive test result, leading to a 40% rise in stock. MOT...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Industry volume growth remains firm, but price pressure on domestic 'sort and transport' companies continued to increase in December. We expect SF...

Tracking Traffic

STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Plummeting prices and already-low profitability could force second-tier Chinese express names STO and Yunda to be part of industry consolidation in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/3690 HK/JD/VIPS/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/ZTO/600233 CH/002120 CH

​Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]: LKNCY/0000625 CH/1211 HK/300750 CH/QS/NIO/LI/2618 HK/ZTO/002352 CH/600233 CH

​Cotti promotion of commercial robots in the coffee industry. A battery startup had a positive test result, leading to a 40% rise in stock. MOT...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Parcel deliveries in Beijing are affected by regulations on three-wheel cars; ByteDance is discussing gaming business acquisition with Tencent;...

Cotti promotion of commercial robots in the coffee industry. A battery startup had a positive test result, leading to a 40% rise in stock. MOT...